International economics: Difference between revisions

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International trade

Scope and methodology

The economic theory of international trade differs from the remainder of economic theory mainly because of the comparatively limited international mobility of the capital and labour ^[1]. In that respect, it would appear to differ in degree rather than in principle from the trade between remote regions in one country. Thus the methodology of international trade economics differs little from that of the remainder of economics. However, the direction of academic research on the subject has been influenced by the fact that governments have often sought to impose restrictions upon international trade, and the motive for the development of trade theory has often been a wish to determine the consequences of such restrictions.

The branch of trade theory which is conventionally categorized as "classical" consists mainly of the application of deductive logic, originating with Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage and developing into a range of theorems that depend for their practical value upon the realism of their postulates. "Modern" trade theory, on the other hand, depends mainly upon empirical analysis.

Classical theory

The law of comparative advantage provides a logical explanation of international trade as the rational consequence of the comparative advantages that arise from inter-regional differences - regardless of how those differences arise. Since its exposition by John Stuart Mill ^[2] the techniques of neo-classical economics have been applied to it to model the patterns of trade that would result from various postulated sources of comparative advantage. However, extremely restrictive (and often unrealistic) assumptions have had to be adopted in order to make the problem amenable to theoretical analysis. The best-known of the resulting models, the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem (H-O) ^[3] depends upon the assumptions of no international differences of technology, productivity, or consumer preferences; no obstacles to pure competition or free trade and no scale economies. On those assumptions, it derives a model of the trade patterns that would arise solely from international differences in the relative abundance of labour and capital (referred to as factor endowments). The resulting theorem states that, on those assumptions, a country with a relative abundance of capital would export capital-intensive products and import labour-intensive products. The theorem proved to be of very limited predictive value, as was demonstrated by what came to be known as the "Leontief Paradox" (the discovery that, despite its capital-rich factor endowment, America was exporting labour-intensive products and importing capital-intensive products ^[4]) Nevertheless the theoretical techniques (and many of the assumptions) used in deriving the H-O model were subsequently used to derive further theorems. The Stolper-Samuelson theorem ^[5] ^[6] , which is often described as a corollary of the H-O theorem, was an early example. In its most general form it states that if the price of a good rises (falls) then the price of the factor used intensively in that industry will also rise (fall) while the price of the other factor will fall (rise). In the international trade context for which it was devised it means that trade lowers the real wage of the scarce factor of production, and protection from trade raises it. Another corollary of the H-O theorem is Samuelson's factor price equalisation theorem ^[7] which states that as trade between countries tends to equalise their product prices, it tends also to equalise the prices paid to their factors of production. Those theories have sometimes been taken to mean that trade between an industrialised country and a developing country would lower the wages of the unskilled in the industrialised country. (But, as noted below, that conclusion depends upon the unlikely assumption that productivity is the same in the two countries). Large numbers of learned papers have been produced in attempts to elaborate on the H-O and Stolper-Samuelson theorems, and while many of them are considered to provide valuable insights, they have seldom proved to be directly applicable to the task of explaining trade patterns.

(See also the Rybczynski theorem ^[8] ^[9])

Modern theory

Modern trade theory moves away from the restrictive assumptions of the H-O theorem and explores the effects upon trade of a range of factors, including technology and scale economies. It makes extensive use of econometrics to identify from the available statistics, the contribution of particular factors among the many different factors that affect trade. The contribution of differences of technology have been evaluated in several such studies. The temporary advantage arising from a country’s development of a new technology is seen as contributory factor in one study ^[10]. Other researchers have found research and development expenditure, patents issued, and the availability of skilled labor, to be indicators of the technological leadership that enables some countries to produce a flow of such technological innovations. ^[11] ^[12] and have found that technology leaders tend to export hi-tech products to others and receive imports of more standard products from them. Another econometric study also established a correlation between country size and the share of exports made up of goods in the production of which there are scale economies ^[13]. It is further suggested in that study that internationally-traded goods fall into three categories, each with a different type of comparative advantage:

goods that are produced by the extraction and routine processing of available natural resources – such as coal, oil and wheat, for which developing countries often have an advantage compared with other types of production – which might be referred to as "Ricardo goods";
low-technology goods, such as textiles and steel, that tend to migrate to countries with appropriate factor endowments - which might be referred to as "Heckscher-Ohlin goods"; and,
high-technology goods and high scale-economy goods, such as computers and aeroplanes, for which the comparative advantage arises from the availability of R&D resources and specific skills and the proximity to large sophisticated markets.

The effects of trade

Gains from trade

There is a strong presumption that any exchange that is freely undertaken will benefit both parties, but that does not exclude the possibility that it may be harmful to others. However (on assumptions that included constant returns and competitive conditions) Paul Samuelson has proved that it will always be possible for the gainers from international trade to compensate the losers ^[14]. Moreover, in that proof, Samuelson did not take account of the gains to others resulting from wider consumer choice, from the international specialisation of productive activities - and consequent economies of scale, and from the transmission of the benefits of technological innovation. An OECD study has suggested that there are further dynamic gains resulting from better resource allocation, deepening specialisation, increasing returns to R&D, and technology spillover. The authors found the evidence concerning growth rates to be mixed, but that there is strong evidence that a 1 per cent increase in openness to trade increases the level of GDP per capita by between 0.9 per cent and 2.0 per cent ^[15]. They suggested that much of the gain arises from the growth of of the most productive firms at the expense of the less productive. Those findings and others ^[16] have contributed to a broad consensus among economists that trade confers very substantial net benefits, and that government restrictions upon trade are generally damaging.

Factor price equalisation

Nevertheless there have been widespread misgivings about the effects of international trade upon wage earners in developed countries. Samuelson‘s factor price equalisation theorem indicates that, if productivity were the same in both countries, the effect of trade would be to bring about equality in wage rates. As noted above, that theorem is sometimes taken to mean that trade between an industrialised country and a developing country would lower the wages of the unskilled in the industrialised country. However, it is unreasonable to assume that productivity would be the same in a low-wage developing country as in a high-wage developed country. A 1999 study has found international differences in wage rates to be approximately matched by corresponding differences in productivity ^[17] . (Such discrepancies that remained were probably the result of over-valuation or under-valuation of exchange rates, or of inflexibilities in labour markets.) It has been argued that, although there may sometimes be short-term pressures on wage rates in the developed countries, competition between employers in developing countries can be expected eventually to bring wages into line with their employees' marginal products. Any remaining international wage differences would then be the result of productivity differences, so that there would be no difference between unit labour costs in developing and developed countries, and no downward pressure on wages in the developed countries^[18].

Terms of trade

There has also been concern that international trade could operate against the interests of developing countries. Influential studies published in 1950 by the Argentine economist Raul Prebisch ^[19] and the British economist Hans Singer ^[20] suggested that there is a tendency for the prices of agricultural products to fall relative to the prices of manufactured goods; turning the terms of trade against the developing countries and producing an unintended transfer of wealth from them to the developing companies. Their findings have been confirmed by a number of subsequent studies, although it has been suggested ^[21] that the effect may be due to quality bias in the index numbers used or to the possession of market power by manufacturers . The Prebisch/Singer findings remain controversial, but they were used at the time - and have been used subsequently - to suggest that the developing countries should erect barriers against manufactured imports in order to nurture their own “infant industries” and so reduce their need to export agricultural products. The arguments for and against such a policy are similar to those concerning the protection of infant industries in general.

Infant industries

The term "infant industry" is used to denote a new industry which has prospects of becoming profitable in the long-term, but which would be unable to survive in the face of competition from imported goods. That is a situation that can occur because time is needed either to achieve potential economies of scale, or to acquire potential learning curve economies. Successful identification of such a situation followed by the temporary imposition of a barrier against imports can, in principle, produce substantial benefits to the country that applies it – a policy known as “import substitution industrialization”. Whether such policies succeed depends upon governments’ skills in picking winners, and there might reasonably be expected to be both successes and failures. It has been claimed that North Korea’s automobile industry owes its existence to initial protection against imports ^[22], but a study of infant industry protection in Turkey reveals the absence of any association between productivity gains and degree of protection, such as might be expected of a successful import substitution policy. ^[23] . Another study provides descriptive evidence suggesting that attempts at import substitution industrialisation since the 1970s have usually failed ^[24], but the empirical evidence on the question has been contradictory and inconclusive ^[25]. It has been argued that the case against import substitution industrialisation is not that it is bound to fail, but that subsidies and tax incentives do the job better ^[26]. It has also been pointed out that, in any case, trade restrictions could not be expected to correct the domestic market imperfections that often hamper the development of infant industries ^[27]

Trade policies

Economists’ findings about the benefits of trade have often been rejected by government policy-makers, who have frequently sought to protect domestic industries against foreign competition by erecting barriers, such as tariffs and quotas, against imports. Average tariff levels of around 15 per cent in the late 19th century rose to about 30 percent in the 1930s, following the passage in the United States of the Smoot-Hawley Act ^[28]. Mainly as the result of international agreements under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and subsequently the World Trade Organisation (WTO), average tariff levels were progressively reduced to about 7 per cent during the second half of the 20th century, and some other trade restrictions were also removed. The restrictions that remain are nevertheless of major economic importance: among other estimates ^[29] the World Bank estimated in 2004 that the removal of all trade restrictions would yield benefits of over $500 billion a year by 2015 ^[30]. The largest of the remaining trade-distorting policies are those concerning agriculture. In the OECD countries government payments account for 30 per cent of farmers’ receipts and tariffs of over 100 per cent are common ^[31]. OECD economists estimate that cutting all agricultural tariffs and subsidies by 50% would set off a chain reaction in realignments of production and consumption patterns that would add an extra $26 billion to annual world income ^[32].

Quotas prompt foreign suppliers to raise their prices toward the domestic level of the importing country. That relieves some of the competitive pressure on domestic suppliers, and both they and the foreign suppliers gain at the expense of a loss to consumers, and to the domestic economy, in addition to which there is a deadweight loss to the world economy. When quotas were banned under the rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the United States, Britain and the European Union made use of equivalent arrangements known as voluntary restraint agreements (VRAs) or voluntary export restraints (VERs) which were negotiated with the governments of exporting countries (mainly Japan) - until they too were banned. Tariffs have been considered to be less harmful than quotas, although it can be shown that their welfare effects differ only when there are significant upward or downward trends in imports ^[33]. Governments also impose a wide range of non-tariff barriers ^[34] that are similar in effect to quotas, some of which are subject to WTO agreements ^[35]. A recent example has been the application of the precautionary principle to exclude innovatory products ^[36].

International Finance

Scope and methodology

The economics of international finance do not differ in principle from the economics of international trade but there are significant differences of emphasis. The practice of international finance tends to involve greater uncertainties and risks because the assets that are traded are claims to flows of returns that often extend many years into the future. Markets in financial assets tend to be more volatile than markets in goods and services because decisions are more often revised and more rapidly put into effect. There is the same presumption that a transaction that is freely undertaken will benefit both parties, but there is a much greater danger that it will be harmful to others. For example, mismanagement of mortgage lending in the United States led in 2008 to banking failures and credit shortages in other developed countries, and sudden reversals of international flows of capital have often led to damaging financial crises in developing countries. And, because of the incidence of rapid change, the methodology of comparative statics has fewer applications than in the theory of international trade, and empirical analysis is more widely employed. Also, the consensus among economists concerning its principle issues is narrower and more open to controversy than is the consensus about international trade.

Exchange rates and capital mobility

A major change in the organisation of international finance occurred in the latter years of the twentieth century, and economists are still debating its implications. At the end of the second world war the national signatories to the Bretton Woods Agreement had agreed to maintain their currencies each at a fixed exchange rate with the United States dollar, and the United States government had undertaken to buy gold on demand at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce. In support of those commitments, most signatory nations had maintained strict control over their nationals’ use of foreign exchange and upon their dealings in international financial assets. But in 1971 the United States government announced that it was suspending the convertibility of the dollar, and there followed a progressive transition to the current regime of floating exchange rates in which most governments no longer attempt to control their exchange rates or to impose controls upon access to foreign currencies or upon access to international financial markets. The behaviour of the international financial system was transformed. Exchange rates became very volatile and there was an extended series of damaging financial crises. One study estimated that by the end of the twentieth century there had been 112 banking crises in 93 countries ^[37], another that there had been 26 banking crises, 86 currency crises and 27 mixed banking and currency crises ^[38] - many times more than in the previous post-war years.

The outcome was not what had been expected. In making an influential case for flexible exchange rates in the 1950s, Milton Friedman had claimed that if there were any resulting instability, it would mainly be the consequence of macroeconomic instability ^[39], but an empirical analysis in 1999 found no apparent connection ^[40]. Economists began to wonder whether the expected advantages of freeing financial markets from government intervention were in fact being realised ^[41] ^[42] ^[43]. Neoclassical theory had led them to expect capital to flow from the capital-rich developed economies to the capital-poor developing countries - because the returns to capital there would be higher. Flows of financial capital would tend to increase the level of investment in the developing countries by reducing their costs of capital, and the direct investment of physical capital would tend to promote specialisation and the transfer of skills and technology. However, theoretical considerations alone cannot determine the balance between those benefits and the costs of volatility, and the question has had to be tackled by empirical analysis. A 2006 International Monetary Fund working paper offers a summary of the empirical evidence ^[44]. The authors found little evidence either of the benefits of the liberalisation of capital movements, or of claims that it is responsible for the spate of financial crises. They suggest that net benefits can be achieved by countries that are able to meet threshold conditions of financial competence but that for others, the benefits are likely to be delayed, and vulnerability to interruptions of capital flows is likely to be increased.

Policies and Institutions

Although the majority of developed countries now have floating exchange rates, some of them – together with many developing countries – maintain exchange rates that are nominally "fixed", usually with the US dollar or the euro. The adoption of a fixed rate requires intervention in the foreign exchange market by the country’s central bank, and is usually accompanied by a degree of control over its citizens’ access to international markets. A controversial case in point is the policy of the Chinese government who had, until 2005, maintained the renminbi at a fixed rate to the dollar, but have since "pegged" it to a basket of currencies. It is frequently alleged that in doing so they are deliberately holding its value lower than if it were allowed to float (but there is evidence to the contrary ^[45]). Some governments have abandoned their national currencies in favour of the common currency of a currency area such as the eurozone and some, such as Denmark, have retained their national currencies but have pegged them at a fixed rate to an adjacent common currency. On an international scale, the economic policies promoted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have had a major influence, especially upon the developing countries. The IMF was set up in 1944 to encourage international cooperation on monetary matters, to stabilise exchange rates and create an international payments system. Its principal activity is the payment of loans to help member countries to overcome balance of payments problems, mainly by restoring their depleted currency reserves. Their loans are, however, conditional upon the introduction of economic measures by recipient governments that are considered by the Fund's economists to provide conditions favourable to recovery. Their recommended economic policies are broadly those that have been adopted in the United States and the other major developed countries (known as the "Washington Consensus") and have often included the removal of all restrictions upon incoming investment. The Fund has been severely criticised by Joseph Stiglitz and others for what they consider to be the inappropriate enforcement of those policies and for failing to warn recipient countries of the dangers that can arise from the volatility of capital movements.

International financial stability

From the time of the Great Depression onwards, regulators and their economic advisors have been aware that economic and financial crises can spread rapidly from country to country, and that financial crises can have serious economic consequences. For many decades, that awareness led governments to impose strict controls over the activities and conduct of banks and other credit agencies, but in the 1980s many governments pursued a policy of deregulation in the belief that the resulting efficiency gains would outweigh any systemic risks. The extensive financial innovations that followed are described in the article on financial economics. One of their effects has been greatly to increase the international inter-connectedness of the financial markets and to create an international financial system with the characteristics known in control theory as "complex-interactive". The stability of such a system is difficult to analyse because there are many possible failure sequences. The internationally-systemic crises that followed included the equity crash of October 1987 ^[46], the Japanese asset price collapse of the 1990s ^[47] the Asian financial crisis of 1997^[48] the Russian government default of 1998 ^[49](which brought down the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund) and the 2007-8 sub-prime mortgages crisis ^[50] ^[51]. The symptoms have generally included collapses in asset prices, increases in risk premiums, and general reductions in liquidity. Measures designed to reduce the vulnerability of the international financial system have been put forward by several international institutions. The Bank for International Settlements made two successive recommendations (Basel I and Basel II ^[52]) concerning the regulation of banks, and a coordinating group of regulating authorities, and the Financial Stability Forum, that was set up in 1999 to identify and address the weaknesses in the system, has put forward some proposals in an interim report ^[53].

Global imbalances

Cross-country differences in saving patterns, investment patterns, and portfolio choices can result in large international capital flows and the development of correspondingly large current account surpluses and deficits. Those developments are beneficial insofar as they reflect differing in levels of development, demographic patterns, and other underlying economic fundamentals, but they can also reflect distortions, externalities, and irrational risk-taking^[54]. The large capital flows into the United States from China, Japan and the oil-exporting countries in the 1990s and early years of the 21st century^[55]enabled its inhabitants to consume more than they produced - a trend that was recognisably unsustainable. Before the Great Recession there were numerous warnings of the consequences of a reversal of such a trend ^[56], and although it was largely reversed in the course of that recession, there are still concerns about the dangers of its possible renewal.

Migration

Elementary considerations lead to a presumption that international migration results in a net gain in economic welfare. Wage differences between developed and developing countries have been found to be mainly due to productivity differences ^[57] which may be assumed to arise mostly from differences in the availability of physical, social and human capital. And economic theory indicates that the move of a skilled worker from a place where the returns to skill are relatively low to a place where they are relatively high should produce a net gain (but that it would tend to depress the wages of skilled workers in the recipient country). There have been many econometric studies intended to quantify those gains. A Copenhagen Consensus study suggests that if the share of foreign workers grew to 3% of the labour force in the rich countries there would be global benefits of $675 billion a year by 2025 ^[58]. However, a survey of the evidence led a House of Lords committee to conclude that any benefits of immigration to the United Kingdom are relatively small ^[59]. Evidence from the United States also suggests that the economic benefits to the receiving country are relatively small ^[60], and that the presence of immigrants in its labour market results in only a small reduction in local wages ^[61]. From the standpoint of a developing country, the emigration of skilled workers represents a loss of human capital (known as brain drain), leaving the remaining workforce without the benefit of their support. That effect upon the welfare of the parent country is to some extent offset by the remittances that are sent home by the emigrants, and by the enhanced technical know-how with which some of them return. One study introduces a further offsetting factor to suggest that the opportunity to migrate fosters enrolment in education thus promoting a "brain gain" that can counteract the lost human capital associated with emigration ^[62]. Whereas some studies suggest that parent countries can benefit from the emigration of skilled workers ^[63], generally it is emigration of unskilled and semi-skilled workers that is of economic benefit to countries of origin, by reducing pressure for employment creation. Where skilled emigration is concentrated in specific highly skilled sectors, such as medicine, the consequences are severe and even catastrophic in cases where 50% or so of trained doctors have emigrated. The crucial issues, as recently acknowledged by the OECD, is the matter of return and reinvestment in their countries of origin by the migrants themselves: thus, government policies in Europe are increasingly focused upon facilitating temporary skilled migration alongside migrant remittances. Unlike movement of capital and goods, since 1973 government policies have tried to restrict migration flows, often without any economic rationale. Such restrictions have had diversionary effects, channeling the great majority of migration flows into illegal migration and "false" asylum-seeking ^[64]. Since such migrants work for lower wages and often zero social insurance costs, the gain from labour migration flows is actually higher than the minimal gains calculated for legal flows; accompanying side-effects are significant, however, and include political damage to the idea of immigration, lower unskilled wages for the host population, and increased policing costs alongside lower tax receipts.

Globalisation

The term globalisation has acquired a variety of meanings, but in economic terms if refers to the move that is taking place in the direction of complete mobility of capital and labour and their products, so that the world's economies are on the way to becoming totally integrated. The driving forces of the process are reductions in politically-imposed barriers and in the costs of transport and communication (although, even if those barriers and costs were eliminated, the process would be limited by inter-country differences in social capital). It is a process which has ancient origins, which has gathered pace in the last fifty years, but which is very far from complete. In its concluding stages, interest rates, wage rates and corporate and income tax rates would become the same everywhere, driven to equality by competition, as investors, wage earners and corporate and personal taxpayers threatened to migrate in search of better terms. In fact, there are few signs of international convergence of interest rates, wage rates or tax rates. Although the world is more integrated in some respects, it is possible to argue that on the whole it is now less integrated than it was before the first world war. ^[65], and that many middle-east countries are less globalised than they were 25 years ago ^[66].

Of the moves toward integration that have occurred, the strongest has been in financial markets, in which globalisation is estimated to have tripled since the mid-1970s^[67]. Recent research has shown that it has improved risk-sharing, but only in developed countries, and that in the developing countries it has increased macroeconomic volatility. It is estimated to have resulted in net welfare gains worldwide, but with losers as well as gainers. ^[68] ^[69]. Increased globalisation has also made it easier for recessions to spread from country to country. A reduction in economic activity in one country can lead to a reduction in activity in its trading partners as a result of its consequent reduction in demand for their exports, which is one of the mechanisms by which the business cycle is transmitted from country to country. Empirical research confirms that the greater the trade linkage between countries the more coordinated are their business cycles ^[70]. Globalisation can also have a significant influence upon the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The Mundell-Fleming model and its extensions ^[71] are often used to analyse the role of capital mobility (and it was also used by Paul Krugman to give a simple account of the Asian financial crisis ^[72]). Part of the increase in income inequality that has taken place within countries is attributable - in some cases - to globalisation. A recent IMF report demonstrates that the increase in inequality in the developing countries in the period 1981 to 2004 was due entirely to technological change, with globalisation making a partially offsetting negative contribution, and that in the developed countries globalisation and technological change were equally responsible. ^[73].

Opposition to globalisation

Globalisation is seen as contributing to economic welfare by most economists – but not all. Professor Joseph Stiglitz ^[74] ^[75] of the Columbia Business School has advanced the infant industry case for protection in developing countries and criticised the conditions imposed for help by the International Monetary Fund ^[76]. And Professor Dani Rodrik of Harvard^[77] has noted that the benefits of globalisation are unevenly spread, and that it has led to income inequalities, and to damaging losses of social capital in the parent countries and to social stresses resulting from immigration in the receiving countries ^[78]. An extensive critical analysis of these contentions has been made by Martin Wolf ^[79], and a lecture by Professor Jagdish Bhagwati has surveyed the debate that has taken place among economists^[80]

References

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↑ Dani Rodrik Has Globalization Gone Too Far?. Institute for International Economics 1997
↑ Martin Wolf Why Globalization Works Yale Nota Bene 2005
↑ Jagdish Bhagwati The Consensus for Free Trade Among economists — has it frayed? Lecture to the World Trade Organisation October 8th 2007

[1] "A note on the scope and method of the theory of international trade" in the appendix of Jacob Viner Studies in the Theory of International Trade : Harper and Brothers 1937

[2] David Ricardo On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation Chapter 7 John Murray, 1821. Third edition.(First published: 1817)

[3] The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem

[4] Wassily Leontief, Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital Position Re-examined Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, vol. XCVII p332 September 1953

[5] The Stolper-Samuelson theorem

[6] Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson Protection and Real Wages' Review of Economic Studies, 9: 58-73. 1941

[7] Paul Samuelson: "International Trade and the Equalization of Factor Prices", The Economic Journal June 1949

[8] The Rybczynski theorem

[9] Tadeusz Rybczyinski Factor Endowments and Relative Commodity Prices Econometrica volXXII 1955

[10] Michael Posner International Trade and Technical Change Oxford Economic Papers 13 1961

[11] Luc Soete: "A General Test of Technological Gap Trade Theory", Review of World Economics December 1981

[12] Raymond Vernon (Ed): The Technology Factor in International Trade National Bureau of Economic Research 1970

[13] Gary Hufbauer: "The Impact of National Characteristics and Technology on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactured Goods" in Vernon op cit 1970

[14] Paul Samuelson: "The Gains from International Trade" Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 5: 195-205 1939

[15] Hildegunn Nordas et al: Dynamic Gains From Trade OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No 43 2006

[16] Murray Kemp The Gains from Trade and the Gains from Aid: Essays in International Trade Theory: Routledge 1995

[17] Stephen Golub Labor Costs and International Trade American Enterprise Institute: 1999

[18] Martin Wolf Why Globalization Works pages 176 to 180 Yale Nota Bene 2005

[19] Raul Prebisch The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principle Problem UNECLA, Santiago, 1950

[20] Hans Singer: "The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries", American Economic Review, vol. XL 1950

[21] John Tilton The Terms of Trade Debate and its Implications for Primary Producers California School of Mines Working Paper

[22] Ha-Joon Chang Kicking Away the Ladder

[23] Anne Krueger and Bilge Tuncer An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument, American Economic Review, vol. 72, 1982.

[24] Henry Bruton A Reconsideration of Import Substitution Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36, No. 2, Jun., 1998

[25] Juan Hallak and James Levis Fooling Ourselves: The Globalization and Growth Debate NBER Working Paper No 10244 2004

[26] Bhagwati and Ramaswami. Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy - Some Further Results Journal of Political Economy, 1969

[27] Robert Baldwin: "The Case Against Infant Industry Protection", Journal of Political Economy, vol 77 1969

[28] Christopher Blattman, Jeffrey Williamson and Michael Clemens Who Protected and Why? Tariffs the World Around 1870-1938 Presented at the Conference on the Political Economy of Globalization, Trinity College, Dublin 2002

[29] Assessing the Cost of Protection HM Treasury (Annex A of Trade and the Global Economy 2004

[30] World Bank Global Economic Prospects 2004

[31] Trends in Market Openness OECD Economic Review 1999

[32] The Doha Development Round OECD 2006

[33] Steven Surovic International Trade Theory and Policy Chap 110-4

[34] David Sumner et al Tariff and Non-tariff Barriers to Trade Farm Foundation 2002

[35] WTO agreements concerning non-tariff barriers WTO 2007

[36] Sabrina Shaw and Rita Schwartz The Precautionary Principle and the WTO United Nations University 2005

[37] Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World World Bank May, 2001

[38] Barry Eichengreen and Michael Bordo Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization NBER Working Paper No. 8716 2002

[39] Milton Friedman "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" in Essays in Positive Economics p173 Phoenix Books 1966

[40] Robert Flood and Andrew Rose Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics IMF/Haas Business School 1999

[41] Paul Krugman: Exchange Rates The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics Library Economics and Liberty

[42] Jagdish Bhagwati: The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars Foreign Affairs, May/June 1998

[43] Carlos Liard-Muriente "Capital Controls in Theory and Practice" Journal of Business Finance Vol 1 Issue 1 2007

[44] Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal IMF Working Paper WP/06/189 2006

[45] Daniel Griswold Who’s Manipulating Whom Trade Briefing Paper No 23 Cato Institute Center for Trade Policy Studies 2006

[46] The 1987 Stock Market Crash, Lope 2004

[47] Akihiro and David Woo The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990s: Sources and Lessons, IMF Working Paper WP/00/7 2000

[48] Timothy Lane: "The Asian Financial Crisis; What Have We Learned" Finance and development September 1999 IMF

[49] Taimur Baig and Ilan Goldfajn: The Russian Default and Contagion to Brazil IMF Working Paper WP/00/160 200

[50] "Global Risks 2008" World Economic Forum January 2008

[51] Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness Global Financial Stability Report International Monetary Fund April 2008

[52] Core Principles of Effective Banking Supervision Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements 2006(Basel 2)

[53] Interim Report of the Working Group on Market and Institutional Resilience, Financial Stability Forum, February 2008

[54] Olivier Blanchard and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti: Global Imbalances: In Midstream?, Fig 4, IMF Staff Position Note, International Monetary Fund, December 2009

[55] Ignazio Visco: Global Imbalances and the International Monetary System", World Economics January-March 2010

[56] Martin Wolf: Fixing Global Finance, Yale University Press, 2009

[57] Stephen Golub Labor Costs and International Trade American Enterprise Institute: 1999

[58] Kym Anderson and Alan Winter: "The Challenge of Reducing International Trade and Migration Barriers", Copenhagen Consensus, 2008

[59] House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Session 2007-8 HL paper 82, The Stationery Office, London

[60] George J. Borjas The Economic Benefits from Immigration NBER Working Paper No. 4955 1994

[61] George Borjas The Economics of Immigration Journal of Economic Literature Dec 1994

[62] Frederic Docquier and Hillel Rapoport Skilled Migration: the Perspective of the Developing Countries

[63] Catia Batista, Pedro Vicente and Aitor Lacuesta: "Brain Drain or Brain Gain?Micro: Evidence from an African Success Story", Oxford Economics Papers, August 2007

[64] Martin Baldwin-Edwards: "Illegal Immigration, A Theoretical and Historical Approach", Third World Quarterly (forthcoming)

[65] Paul Streeten "Integration, Interdependence, and Globalization" in Finance and Development IMF June 2001

[66] Fred Bergsten “The G-20 and the World Economy” in World Economics Vol 5 Number 3 Page 28 July/September 2004 [1]

[67] Paolo Mauro and Jonathan Ostry Who's Driving Financial Globalization? IMF Research Department 2007

[68] IMF Research Department Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalisation IMF Research Department Discussion Paper 2007

[69] Martin Evans and Viktoria Hnatkovska International Financial Integration and the Real Economy IMF Staff Papers Vol 54 No 2 2007

[70] Kose, M. Ayhan and Yi, Kei-Mu, The Trade Comovement Problem in International Macroeconomics (December 2002). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 155

[71] Jacob Frenkel and Assaf Razin The Mundell-Fleming Model A Quarter Century Later: A Unified Exposition International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 34, No. 4, December 1987

[72] Paul Krugman Analytical Afterthoughts on The Asian Crisis

[73] Subir Lall, Chris Papageorgiou and Petia Topalva Globalization and Inequality in IMF World Economic Outlook October 2007 Chapter 4

[74] Joseph Stiglitz website

[75] Interview with Joseph Stiglitz

[76] Joseph Stiglitz Globalization and its Discontents" Norton 2002

[77] Dani Rodrik's website

[78] Dani Rodrik Has Globalization Gone Too Far?. Institute for International Economics 1997

[79] Martin Wolf Why Globalization Works Yale Nota Bene 2005

[80] Jagdish Bhagwati The Consensus for Free Trade Among economists — has it frayed? Lecture to the World Trade Organisation October 8th 2007

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@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 {{subpages}}
+{{TOC|right}}
+'''International economics''' is concerned with the effects upon economic activity of international differences in productive resources and  consumer preferences and the institutions that affect them. It seeks to explain the patterns  and consequences  of transactions and interactions  between  the inhabitants of different countries, including trade, investment and migration.
-International economics is concerned with the effects upon economic activity of international differences in productive resources and  consumer preferences and the institutions that affect them. It seeks to explain the patterns  and consequences  of transactions and interactions  between  the inhabitants of different countries, including trade, investment and migration.
+For definitions of terms shown in italics in this article see the Related Articles subpage.
 ==International trade==
 ===Scope and methodology===
 The economic theory of international trade differs from the remainder of economic theory mainly because of  the comparatively limited international  mobility of the capital and labour
-<ref>[http://www.econlib.org/library/npdbooks/Viner/vnstt10.html "A note on the scope and method of the theory of international trade"    in the appendix of Jacob Viner ''Studies in the Theory of International Trade'' : Harper and Brothers  1937]</ref>.  In that respect, it would appear  to differ in degree rather than in principle from  the trade between remote regions in one country. Thus  the methodology of the of international trade economics differs little from that of the remainder of economics. However, the direction of academic research on the subject has been influenced by the fact that governments have often sought to impose restrictions upon international trade, and the motive for the development of trade theory  has often been a wish to determine the consequences of such restrictions.
+<ref>[http://www.econlib.org/library/npdbooks/Viner/vnstt10.html "A note on the scope and method of the theory of international trade"    in the appendix of Jacob Viner ''Studies in the Theory of International Trade'' : Harper and Brothers  1937]</ref>.  In that respect, it would appear  to differ in degree rather than in principle from  the trade between remote regions in one country. Thus  the methodology of international trade economics differs little from that of the remainder of economics. However, the direction of academic research on the subject has been influenced by the fact that governments have often sought to impose restrictions upon international trade, and the motive for the development of trade theory  has often been a wish to determine the consequences of such restrictions.
-The branch of trade  theory which  is conventionally categorized as "classical" consists mainly of the application of deductive logic, originating with  Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage (for an explanation of which, see the article on [[comparative advantage]]) and  developing into  a range of theorems that depend for their practical value upon the realism of their postulates. "Modern" trade theory, on the other hand, depends mainly upon empirical analysis of available statistics.
+The branch of trade  theory which  is conventionally categorized as "classical" consists mainly of the application of deductive logic, originating with  Ricardo’s Theory of ''Comparative Advantage''  and  developing into  a range of theorems that depend for their practical value upon the realism of their postulates. "Modern" trade theory, on the other hand, depends mainly upon ''empirical analysis''.
 ===Classical theory===
-The law of [[comparative advantage]] provides a logical explanation of international trade as the rational consequence of the comparative advantages that arise from inter-regional differences -  regardless of how those differences arise.  Since its exposition by John Stuart Mill <ref>[http://www.econlib.org/Library/Ricardo/ricP2a.html#Ch.7,%20On%20Foreign%20Trade,%20comparative%20advantage  David Ricardo ''On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation''  Chapter 7  John Murray, 1821. Third edition.(First published: 1817)]</ref> the techniques of neo-classical economics have been applied to it to model the patterns of trade that would result from various postulated sources of comparative advantage. However, extremely restrictive (and often unrealistic) assumptions have had to be adopted in order to make the problem amenable to theoretical analysis. The best-known of the resulting models, the [[Heckscher-Ohlin]] theorem (H-O)
+The law of ''[[comparative advantage]]'' provides a logical explanation of international trade as the rational consequence of the comparative advantages that arise from inter-regional differences -  regardless of how those differences arise.  Since its exposition by John Stuart Mill <ref>[http://www.econlib.org/Library/Ricardo/ricP2a.html#Ch.7,%20On%20Foreign%20Trade,%20comparative%20advantage  David Ricardo ''On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation''  Chapter 7  John Murray, 1821. Third edition.(First published: 1817)]</ref> the techniques of neo-classical economics have been applied to it to model the patterns of trade that would result from various postulated sources of comparative advantage. However, extremely restrictive (and often unrealistic) assumptions have had to be adopted in order to make the problem amenable to theoretical analysis. The best-known of the resulting models, the [[Heckscher-Ohlin theorem]] (H-O)
-<ref>[http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch60/T60-8.php The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem]</ref> depends upon the assumptions of no international  differences of technology, productivity, or consumer preferences, no obstacles to pure competition or free trade and  no scale economies. On those assumptions, it derives a model of the trade patterns that would arise solely from  international  differences in the relative abundance of  labour and capital (referred to as ''factor endowments'').  The resulting theorem states that, on those assumptions, a country  with a relative abundance of capital would export capital-intensive products and import labour-intensive products. The theorem proved to be of very limited predictive value, as was demonstrated by what came to be known as the "''[[Leontief Paradox]]''" (the discovery that, despite its capital-rich factor endowment,  America was exporting labour-intensive products and importing capital-intensive products <ref>Wassily  Leontief, ''Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital Position Re-examined'' Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, vol. XCVII p332 September 1953</ref>)  Nevertheless the  theoretical techniques (and many of the assumptions) used in deriving  the H-O model  were subsequently used to  derive further theorems. The [[Stolper-Samuelson theorem]] <ref>[http://www.ucd.ie/economic/staff/pneary/pdf/stolpers.pdf The Stolper-Samuelson theorem]</ref> <ref>Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson ''Protection and Real Wages''' Review of Economic Studies, 9: 58-73. 1941</ref> , which is often described as a corollary of the H-O theorem, was an early example. In its most general form it states that if the price of a good rises (falls) then the price of the factor used intensively in that industry will also rise (fall) while the price of the other factor will fall (rise). In the international trade context for which it was devised it means that trade lowers the real wage of the scarce factor of production, and protection from trade raises it.  Another corollary of the H-O theorem is Samuelson's [[factor price equalization theorem]] <ref> Paul Samuelson ''International Trade and the Equalization of Factor Prices'' The Economic Journal June 1949</ref> which states that as trade between countries tends to equalize their product prices, it tends also to equalize the prices paid to their factors of production. Those theories have sometimes been taken to mean that trade between an industrialized country and a developing country would lower the wages of the unskilled in the industrialized country. (But, as  noted below, that conclusion depends upon the unlikely  assumption that productivity is the same in the two countries). Large numbers of learned papers have been produced in attempts to elaborate on the H-O and Stolper-Samuelson theorems, and while many of them are considered to provide valuable insights, they  have seldom proved to be directly applicable to the task of explaining trade patterns.
+<ref>[http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch60/T60-8.php The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem]</ref> depends upon the assumptions of no international  differences of technology, productivity, or consumer preferences; no obstacles to pure competition or free trade and  no scale economies. On those assumptions, it derives a model of the trade patterns that would arise solely from  international  differences in the relative abundance of  labour and capital (referred to as factor endowments).  The resulting theorem states that, on those assumptions, a country  with a relative abundance of capital would export capital-intensive products and import labour-intensive products. The theorem proved to be of very limited predictive value, as was demonstrated by what came to be known as the "[[Leontief Paradox]]" (the discovery that, despite its capital-rich factor endowment,  America was exporting labour-intensive products and importing capital-intensive products <ref>Wassily  Leontief, ''Domestic Production and Foreign Trade: The American Capital Position Re-examined'' Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, vol. XCVII p332 September 1953</ref>)  Nevertheless the  theoretical techniques (and many of the assumptions) used in deriving  the H-O model  were subsequently used to  derive further theorems. The [[Stolper-Samuelson theorem]] <ref>[http://www.ucd.ie/economic/staff/pneary/pdf/stolpers.pdf The Stolper-Samuelson theorem]</ref> <ref>Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson ''Protection and Real Wages''' Review of Economic Studies, 9: 58-73. 1941</ref> , which is often described as a corollary of the H-O theorem, was an early example. In its most general form it states that if the price of a good rises (falls) then the price of the factor used intensively in that industry will also rise (fall) while the price of the other factor will fall (rise). In the international trade context for which it was devised it means that trade lowers the real wage of the scarce factor of production, and protection from trade raises it.  Another corollary of the H-O theorem is Samuelson's factor price equalisation theorem <ref> Paul Samuelson: "International Trade and the Equalization of Factor Prices", '' The Economic Journal'' June 1949</ref> which states that as trade between countries tends to equalise their product prices, it tends also to equalise the prices paid to their factors of production. Those theories have sometimes been taken to mean that trade between an industrialised country and a developing country would lower the wages of the unskilled in the industrialised country. (But, as  noted below, that conclusion depends upon the unlikely  assumption that productivity is the same in the two countries). Large numbers of learned papers have been produced in attempts to elaborate on the H-O and Stolper-Samuelson theorems, and while many of them are considered to provide valuable insights, they  have seldom proved to be directly applicable to the task of explaining trade patterns.
 (See also  the [[Rybczynski theorem]]  <ref>[http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch60/T60-3.php The Rybczynski theorem]</ref>
@@ Line 19: / Line 20: @@
 ===Modern theory===
-Modern trade theory moves away from the restrictive assumptions of the H-O theorem and explores the effects upon trade of a range of factors, including technology and  scale economies. It makes  extensive use of [[econometrics]] to identify from the available statistics,  the contribution of particular factors among the many different  factors that affect trade. The contribution of differences of technology have been evaluated in several such studies. The  temporary  advantage  arising from a country’s development of a new technology is seen as  contributory factor  in one study <ref> Michael  Posner ''International Trade and Technical Change'' Oxford Economic Papers 13 1961</ref>. Other researchers have found  research and development expenditure, patents issued and the availability of skilled labor  to be indicators of  the technological leadership  that enables some countries to produce a flow of  such technological innovations. <ref> Luc Soete ''A General Test of Technological Gap'' Trade Theory Review of World Economics December 1981</ref>  <ref> Raymond Vernon (Ed) ''The Technology Factor in International Trade'' National Bureau of Economic Research 1970 </ref>  and have found that  technology leaders tend to export hi-tech products to others and receive imports of more standard products from them. Another econometric study also established a correlation between country size and the share of exports made up of goods in the production of  which there are scale economies <ref> Gary Hufbauer ''The Impact of National Characteristics and Technology on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactured Goods'' in Vernon op cit  1970 </ref>.  It is further suggested in that study  that internationally-traded goods fall into three categories, each with a different type of comparative advantage:
+Modern trade theory moves away from the restrictive assumptions of the H-O theorem and explores the effects upon trade of a range of factors, including technology and  scale economies. It makes  extensive use of ''[[econometrics]]'' to identify from the available statistics,  the contribution of particular factors among the many different  factors that affect trade. The contribution of differences of technology have been evaluated in several such studies. The  temporary  advantage  arising from a country’s development of a new technology is seen as  contributory factor  in one study <ref> Michael  Posner ''International Trade and Technical Change'' Oxford Economic Papers 13 1961</ref>. Other researchers have found  research and development expenditure, patents issued, and the availability of skilled labor,  to be indicators of  the technological leadership  that enables some countries to produce a flow of  such technological innovations. <ref> Luc Soete: "A General Test of Technological Gap Trade Theory", ''Review of World Economics'' December 1981</ref>  <ref> Raymond Vernon (Ed): ''The Technology Factor in International Trade'' National Bureau of Economic Research 1970 </ref>  and have found that  technology leaders tend to export hi-tech products to others and receive imports of more standard products from them. Another econometric study also established a correlation between country size and the share of exports made up of goods in the production of  which there are scale economies <ref> Gary Hufbauer: "The Impact of National Characteristics and Technology on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactured Goods" in Vernon op cit  1970 </ref>.  It is further suggested in that study  that internationally-traded goods fall into three categories, each with a different type of comparative advantage:
-:* goods that are produced by the extraction and routine processing of available natural resources – such as coal, oil and wheat, for which developing countries often have an advantage compared with other types of production –  which  might be referred to as ''Ricardo goods'';
+:* goods that are produced by the extraction and routine processing of available natural resources – such as coal, oil and wheat, for which developing countries often have an advantage compared with other types of production –  which  might be referred to as "Ricardo goods";
-:* low-technology goods, such as textiles and steel, that tend to migrate to countries with appropriate factor endowments - which might be referred to as ''Hecksher-Ohlin goods''; and,
+:* low-technology goods, such as textiles and steel, that tend to migrate to countries with appropriate factor endowments - which might be referred to as "Heckscher-Ohlin goods"; and,
-:* high-technology goods  and high scale-economy goods, such computers and aeroplanes,  for which the comparative advantage arises from the availability of R&D resources and specific skills and the proximity to large sophisticated markets.
+:* high-technology goods  and high scale-economy goods, such as computers and aeroplanes,  for which the comparative advantage arises from the availability of R&D resources and specific skills and the proximity to large sophisticated markets.
 ===The effects of trade===
 ====Gains from trade====
-There is a strong presumption that any exchange that is freely undertaken will benefit both parties, but that does not exclude the possibility that it may be harmful to others.  However (on assumptions that included constant returns and competitive conditions) Paul Samuelson  has  proved that it will always be possible for  the gainers from international trade to compensate the losers <ref> Paul Samuelson  ''The Gains from International Trade''  Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 5: 195-205 1939</ref>. Moreover, in that proof, Samuelson did not take account of the gains to others resulting from wider consumer choice,  from   the  international specialisation of productive activities - and consequent economies of scale, and  from  the  transmission of the benefits  of technological innovation. An OECD study has suggested that there are further ''dynamic'' gains resulting from better resource allocation, deepening specialisation, increasing returns to R&D, and technology spillover. The authors found the evidence concerning growth ''rates'' to be  mixed, but that there is strong evidence that  a 1 per cent increase in opennness to trade increases the ''level'' of GDP per capita by between 0.9 per cent and 2.0 per cent <ref>[http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2006doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT00007296/$FILE/JT03218445.PDF Hildegunn Nordas et al  ''Dynamic Gains From Trade'' OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No 43 2006]</ref>. They suggested that much of the gain arises from the growth of of the most productive firms at the expense of the less productive. Those findings and others <ref>[http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=104458054#  Murray Kemp  ''The Gains from Trade and the Gains from Aid: Essays in International Trade Theory'': Routledge 1995]</ref>  have contributed to a broad consensus among economists that trade confers very substantial net benefits,  and that government restrictions upon trade are generally damaging.
+There is a strong presumption that any exchange that is freely undertaken will benefit both parties, but that does not exclude the possibility that it may be harmful to others.  However (on assumptions that included constant returns and competitive conditions) Paul Samuelson  has  proved that it will always be possible for  the gainers from international trade to compensate the losers <ref> Paul Samuelson: "The Gains from International Trade"  ''Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science'' 5: 195-205 1939</ref>. Moreover, in that proof, Samuelson did not take account of the gains to others resulting from wider consumer choice,  from   the  international specialisation of productive activities - and consequent economies of scale, and  from  the  transmission of the benefits  of technological innovation. An OECD study has suggested that there are further dynamic gains resulting from better resource allocation, deepening specialisation, increasing returns to R&D, and technology spillover. The authors found the evidence concerning growth rates to be  mixed, but that there is strong evidence that  a 1 per cent increase in openness to trade increases the level of GDP per capita by between 0.9 per cent and 2.0 per cent <ref>[http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2006doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT00007296/$FILE/JT03218445.PDF Hildegunn Nordas et al:  ''Dynamic Gains From Trade'' OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No 43 2006]</ref>. They suggested that much of the gain arises from the growth of of the most productive firms at the expense of the less productive. Those findings and others <ref>[http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=104458054#  Murray Kemp  ''The Gains from Trade and the Gains from Aid: Essays in International Trade Theory'': Routledge 1995]</ref>  have contributed to a broad consensus among economists that trade confers very substantial net benefits,  and that government restrictions upon trade are generally damaging.
 ====Factor price equalisation====
-Nevertheless there have been widespread misgivings about the effects of international trade upon wage earners in developed countries. Samuelson‘s factor price equalisation theorem  indicates that, if productivity were the same in both countries, the effect of trade would be to bring about equality in wage rates. As noted above, that theorem is sometimes taken to mean that trade between an industrialised country and a developing country would lower the wages of the unskilled in the industrialised country. However, it is unreasonable to assume that productivity  would be the same in a low-wage  developing country  as in a high-wage developed country.  A 1999  study has found international  differences in wage rates to be  approximately matched by corresponding differences in productivity <ref>[http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=102106888 Stephen Golub  ''Labor Costs and International Trade''  American Enterprise Institute: 1999]</ref> .  (Such discrepancies that remained were probably the result of over-valuation or under-valuation of exchange rates, or of inflexibilities in labour markets.)  It has been argued that, although there may sometimes be short-term pressures on wage rates in the developed countries, competition between employers in  developing countries can be  be expected eventually to  bring wages into line with their employees' marginal products.  Any remaining international  wage differences would then be the result of productivity differences, so that there would be no difference between  unit labour costs in developing and developed countries, and no downward pressure on wages in the developed countries<ref> Martin Wolf ''Why Globalization Works'' pages 176 to 180 Yale Nota Bene 2005</ref>.
+Nevertheless there have been widespread misgivings about the effects of international trade upon wage earners in developed countries. Samuelson‘s factor price equalisation theorem  indicates that, if productivity were the same in both countries, the effect of trade would be to bring about equality in wage rates. As noted above, that theorem is sometimes taken to mean that trade between an industrialised country and a developing country would lower the wages of the unskilled in the industrialised country. However, it is unreasonable to assume that productivity  would be the same in a low-wage  developing country  as in a high-wage developed country.  A 1999  study has found international  differences in wage rates to be  approximately matched by corresponding differences in productivity <ref>[http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=102106888 Stephen Golub  ''Labor Costs and International Trade''  American Enterprise Institute: 1999]</ref> .  (Such discrepancies that remained were probably the result of over-valuation or under-valuation of exchange rates, or of inflexibilities in labour markets.)  It has been argued that, although there may sometimes be short-term pressures on wage rates in the developed countries, competition between employers in  developing countries can be expected eventually to  bring wages into line with their employees' ''marginal products''.  Any remaining international  wage differences would then be the result of productivity differences, so that there would be no difference between  unit labour costs in developing and developed countries, and no downward pressure on wages in the developed countries<ref> Martin Wolf ''Why Globalization Works'' pages 176 to 180 Yale Nota Bene 2005</ref>.
 ====Terms of trade====
-There has also been concern that international trade could operate against the interests of developing countries. Influential studies published in  1950 by the  Argentine economist Raul Prebisch <ref>Raul  Prebisch  ''The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principle Problem''  UNECLA, Santiago, 1950</ref>  and the  British economist Hans Singer <ref>Hans Singer, ''The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries''  American Economic Review, vol. XL 1950</ref>  suggested that there is a tendency for the prices of agricultural products to fall relative to the prices of manufactured goods;  turning the  [[terms of trade]] against the developing countries and producing an unintended transfer of wealth from them to the developing companies. Their findings have been confirmed by  a number of subsequent studies, although it has been suggested <ref>[http://www.econbus.mines.edu/pdf/Tilton%20updates/TermsOfTrade61005paper.pdf  John Tilton ''The Terms of Trade Debate and its Implications for Primary Producers''   California School of Mines Working Paper]</ref>  that the effect may be due to quality bias in the index numbers used (as explained in the article on the [[price index]]) or to the possession of market power by manufacturers (see the article on [[competition]]) . The Prebisch/Singer findings remain controversial, but they were used at the time - and have been used  subsequently - to suggest that the developing countries should erect barriers against manufactured imports in order to nurture their own  “infant industries” and so  reduce their need to export  agricultural products. The arguments for and against such a policy are similar to those concerning the protection of infant industries in general.
+There has also been concern that international trade could operate against the interests of developing countries. Influential studies published in  1950 by the  Argentine economist Raul Prebisch <ref>Raul  Prebisch  ''The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principle Problem''  UNECLA, Santiago, 1950</ref>  and the  British economist Hans Singer <ref>Hans Singer: "The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries", '' American Economic Review'', vol. XL 1950</ref>  suggested that there is a tendency for the prices of agricultural products to fall relative to the prices of manufactured goods;  turning the  ''[[terms of trade]]'' against the developing countries and producing an unintended transfer of wealth from them to the developing companies. Their findings have been confirmed by  a number of subsequent studies, although it has been suggested <ref>[http://www.econbus.mines.edu/pdf/Tilton%20updates/TermsOfTrade61005paper.pdf  John Tilton ''The Terms of Trade Debate and its Implications for Primary Producers''   California School of Mines Working Paper]</ref>  that the effect may be due to ''quality bias'' in the index numbers used  or to the possession of ''market power'' by manufacturers . The Prebisch/Singer findings remain controversial, but they were used at the time - and have been used  subsequently - to suggest that the developing countries should erect barriers against manufactured imports in order to nurture their own  “infant industries” and so  reduce their need to export  agricultural products. The arguments for and against such a policy are similar to those concerning the ''protection'' of infant industries in general.
 ====Infant industries====
-The term "infant industry" is used to denote a new industry which has prospects of becoming profitable in the long-term, but which would be unable to survive in the face of competition from imported goods. That is a situation that can occur  because time is needed either  to achieve potential [[economies of scale]],  or to acquire potential [[learning curve]] economies.  Successful identification of such a situation followed by the temporary imposition of a barrier against imports can, in principle, produce substantial benefits to the country that applies it – a policy known as “import substitution industrialization”.  Whether such policies succeed depends upon governments’ skills in picking winners, and there  might reasonably be expected to be both  successes and failures.  It has been claimed that North Korea’s  automobile industry owes its existence to initial protection against imports <ref>[http://www.paecon.net/PAEtexts/Chang1.htm Ha-Joon Chang ''Kicking Away the Ladder'']</ref>, but a study of infant industry protection in Turkey  reveal the absence of any  association between productivity gains and degree of protection, such as might be expected of a successful import substitution policy.
+The term "infant industry" is used to denote a new industry which has prospects of becoming profitable in the long-term, but which would be unable to survive in the face of competition from imported goods. That is a situation that can occur  because time is needed either  to achieve potential ''[[economies of scale]]'',  or to acquire potential ''[[learning curve]]'' economies.  Successful identification of such a situation followed by the temporary imposition of a barrier against imports can, in principle, produce substantial benefits to the country that applies it – a policy known as “import substitution industrialization”.  Whether such policies succeed depends upon governments’ skills in picking winners, and there  might reasonably be expected to be both  successes and failures.  It has been claimed that North Korea’s  automobile industry owes its existence to initial protection against imports <ref>[http://www.paecon.net/PAEtexts/Chang1.htm Ha-Joon Chang ''Kicking Away the Ladder'']</ref>, but a study of infant industry protection in Turkey reveals the absence of any  association between productivity gains and degree of protection, such as might be expected of a successful import substitution policy.
-<ref> Anne Krueger and  Bilge Tuncer ''An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument'', American Economic Review, vol. 72, 1982.</ref> .  Another study provides descriptive evidence suggesting that attempts at import substitution industrialisation since the 1970s have  usually  failed <ref>[http://www.ace.uiuc.edu/classes/ace451/articles/bruton.pdf  Henry Bruton ''A Reconsideration of Import Substitution'' Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36, No. 2, Jun., 1998]</ref>, but the empirical evidence on the question has been contradictory  and  inconclusive <ref>[http://www-personal.umich.edu/~hallak/w10244.pdf Juan Hallak and James Levis  '' Fooling Ourselves: The Globalization and Growth Debate''  NBER Working Paper No 10244 2004]</ref>.   It has been argued that the case against import substitution industrialisation is not that it is bound to fail, but that subsidies and tax incentives do the job better <ref> Bhagwati and Ramaswami. ''Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy - Some Further Results'' Journal of Political Economy, 1969</ref>.  It has also been pointed out that, in any case, trade restrictions could not be expected to correct the domestic  market imperfections that often hamper the development of infant industries <ref>Robert Baldwin ''The Case Against Infant Industry Protection'' Journal of Political Economy, vol 77 1969</ref>
+<ref> Anne Krueger and  Bilge Tuncer ''An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument'', American Economic Review, vol. 72, 1982.</ref> .  Another study provides descriptive evidence suggesting that attempts at import substitution industrialisation since the 1970s have  usually  failed <ref>[http://www.ace.uiuc.edu/classes/ace451/articles/bruton.pdf  Henry Bruton ''A Reconsideration of Import Substitution'' Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36, No. 2, Jun., 1998]</ref>, but the empirical evidence on the question has been contradictory  and  inconclusive <ref>[http://www-personal.umich.edu/~hallak/w10244.pdf Juan Hallak and James Levis  '' Fooling Ourselves: The Globalization and Growth Debate''  NBER Working Paper No 10244 2004]</ref>.   It has been argued that the case against import substitution industrialisation is not that it is bound to fail, but that subsidies and tax incentives do the job better <ref> Bhagwati and Ramaswami. ''Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy - Some Further Results'' Journal of Political Economy, 1969</ref>.  It has also been pointed out that, in any case, trade restrictions could not be expected to correct the domestic  market imperfections that often hamper the development of infant industries <ref>Robert Baldwin: "The Case Against Infant Industry Protection", ''Journal of Political Economy'', vol 77 1969</ref>
 ===Trade policies===
-Economists’ findings about the benefits of trade have often been rejected by government policy-makers, who have frequently sought to protect domestic industries against foreign competition by erecting barriers, such as tariffs and quotas,  against imports.  Average tariff levels of around 15 per cent  in the late  19th century rose to about 30 percent in the 1930s, following the passage in the United States of the [[Smoot-Hawley Act]] <ref>[http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/williamson/files/Tariffs_Dublin.pdf Christopher Blattman, Jeffrey Williamson and Michael  Clemens ''Who Protected and Why? Tariffs the World Around 1870-1938'' Presented at the Conference on the Political Economy of Globalization, Trinity College, Dublin  2002 ]</ref>.  Mainly as the result of international agreements under the auspices of the  [[General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade]] (GATT) and subsequently  the [[World Trade Organisation]] (WTO),
+Economists’ findings about the benefits of trade have often been rejected by government policy-makers, who have frequently sought to protect domestic industries against foreign competition by erecting barriers, such as ''tariffs'' and ''quotas'',  against imports.  Average tariff levels of around 15 per cent  in the late  19th century rose to about 30 percent in the 1930s, following the passage in the United States of the [[Smoot-Hawley Act]] <ref>[http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/williamson/files/Tariffs_Dublin.pdf Christopher Blattman, Jeffrey Williamson and Michael  Clemens ''Who Protected and Why? Tariffs the World Around 1870-1938'' Presented at the Conference on the Political Economy of Globalization, Trinity College, Dublin  2002 ]</ref>.  Mainly as the result of international agreements under the auspices of the  [[General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade]] (GATT) and subsequently  the [[World Trade Organisation]] (WTO),
 average tariff levels were progressively reduced to about 7 per cent  during the  second half of the 20th century, and some other trade restrictions were also removed. The restrictions that remain are nevertheless of major economic importance: among other estimates <ref>[http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/F/8/17B36F81-BCDC-D4B3-114F51A3BE1B949C.pdf ''Assessing the Cost of Protection'' HM Treasury (Annex A of Trade and the Global Economy 2004]</ref>
 the World Bank estimated in 2004 that the removal of all trade restrictions would yield benefits of over $500 billion a year by 2015 <ref> [http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/GEPEXT/EXTRGEP2004/0,,menuPK:544313~pagePK:64167702~piPK:64167676~theSitePK:544296,00.html.  World Bank Global Economic Prospects 2004]</ref>. The largest of the remaining trade-distorting policies are those concerning agriculture. In the OECD countries government payments account for 30 per cent of farmers’ receipts and tariffs of over 100 per cent are common <ref>[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/53/32/2087741.pdf ''Trends in Market Openness'' OECD Economic Review 1999]</ref>.  OECD economists estimate that cutting all agricultural tariffs and subsidies by 50% would set off a chain reaction in realignments of production and consumption patterns that would add an extra $26 billion to annual world income <ref>[http://www.oecd.org/doha ''The Doha Development Round'' OECD 2006]</ref>.
-The simplest form of trade restriction is the quota, which is a stipulated limit upon the amount of a product which may be imported. This prompts foreign suppliers to  raise their prices toward  the domestic level of the importing country. That relieves some of  the competitive pressure on domestic suppliers and both they and the foreign suppliers gain  at the expense of a loss to consumers, and to the domestic economy, in addition to which there is a ''deadweight loss'' to the world economy <ref> See the tutorials subpage [http://en.citizendium.org/wiki/International_economics/Tutorials]</ref>  When quotas were banned under the GATT rules, the United States, Britain and the European Union made use of  equivalent  arrangements known as Voluntary Restraint Agreements (VRAs) or Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) which were negotiated with the governments of exporting countries (mainly Japan) -  until they too were banned.  Tariffs, which are essentially a tax on imports,  have been  considered  to be less harmful than quotas, although it can be shown that their welfare effects differ only when there are significant upward or downward trends in imports <ref>[http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch110/T110-4.php  Steven Surovic ''International Trade Theory and Policy'' Chap 110-4]</ref>. Governments also impose a wide range of non-tariff barriers <ref>[http://www.farmfoundation.org/2002_farm_bill/sumner.pdf  David Sumner et al  ''Tariff and Non-tariff Barriers to Trade''  Farm Foundation 2002]</ref>  that are similar in effect to quotas, some of which are subject to WTO agreements <ref>[http://www.wto.org/english/theWTO_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm9_e.htm WTO agreements concerning non-tariff barriers WTO 2007]</ref>.  A recent example has been the application of the [[precautionary principle]] to exclude innovatory products
+Quotas prompt foreign suppliers to  raise their prices toward  the domestic level of the importing country. That relieves some of  the competitive pressure on domestic suppliers, and both they and the foreign suppliers gain  at the expense of a loss to consumers, and to the domestic economy, in addition to which there is a ''deadweight loss'' to the world economy.  When quotas were banned under the rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the United States, Britain and the European Union made use of  equivalent  arrangements known as ''voluntary restraint agreements'' (VRAs) or voluntary export restraints (VERs) which were negotiated with the governments of exporting countries (mainly Japan) -  until they too were banned.  Tariffs  have been  considered  to be less harmful than quotas, although it can be shown that their welfare effects differ only when there are significant upward or downward trends in imports <ref>[http://internationalecon.com/Trade/Tch110/T110-4.php  Steven Surovic ''International Trade Theory and Policy'' Chap 110-4]</ref>. Governments also impose a wide range of non-tariff barriers <ref>[http://www.farmfoundation.org/2002_farm_bill/sumner.pdf  David Sumner et al  ''Tariff and Non-tariff Barriers to Trade''  Farm Foundation 2002]</ref>  that are similar in effect to quotas, some of which are subject to WTO agreements <ref>[http://www.wto.org/english/theWTO_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm9_e.htm WTO agreements concerning non-tariff barriers WTO 2007]</ref>.  A recent example has been the application of the ''[[precautionary principle]]'' to exclude innovatory products
 <ref>[http://www.ias.unu.edu/binaries2/Precautionary%20Principle%20and%20WTO.pdf  Sabrina Shaw and Rita Schwartz ''The Precautionary Principle and the WTO'' United Nations University 2005]</ref>.
-===Qualifications and disagreements===
-International trade  is seen  as contributing to economic welfare by most economists – but not all.  Professor Joseph Stiglitz <ref>[http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/ Joseph Stiglitz website]</ref> <ref>[http://www.cceia.org/resources/transcripts/101.html Interview with Joseph Stiglitz]</ref> of the Columbia Business School has advanced the infant industry case for protection in developing countries and criticised the conditions imposed for help by the International Monetary Fund <ref>Joseph Stiglitz ''Globalization and its Discontents" Norton 2002</ref>. And Professor Dani Rodrik of Harvard<ref>[http://rodrik.typepad.com Dani Rodrik's website]</ref> has noted that the  benefits of globalisation are unevenly spread, leading to income inequalities that in his view lead to damaging losses of social capital, and to the migration of labour causing social stresses in receiving countries <ref>Dani Rodrik ''Has Globalization Gone Too Far?.'' Institute for International Economics 1997 </ref>. An extensive  critical  analysis of these contentions has been made by Martin Wolf <ref> Martin Wolf ''Why Globalization Works''  Yale Nota Bene 2005</ref>.
 ==International Finance==
 ===Scope and methodology===
-The economics of international finance do not differ in  principle from the economics of international trade but there are significant differences of emphasis. The practice of international finance tends to involve greater uncertainties and risks because the assets that are traded are claims to flows of returns that often extend many years into the future. Asset markets tend to be more volatile than markets in goods and services because decisions are more often revised and more rapidly put into effect. There is the same presumption that a transaction that is freely undertaken will benefit both parties,  but there is a greater danger that it will be harmful to others.  (For example, sudden reversals of international flows of capital have often led to damaging financial crises in developing countries.) And, because of the incidence of rapid change,  the methodology of comparative statics has fewer applications than in the  theory of international trade, and empirical analysis is more widely employed. Also, the consensus among economists concerning its principle issues is narrower and more open to controversy than is the consensus about international trade.
+The economics of international finance do not differ in  principle from the economics of international trade but there are significant differences of emphasis. The practice of international finance tends to involve greater uncertainties and risks because the assets that are traded are claims to flows of returns that often extend many years into the future. Markets in financial assets tend to be more volatile than markets in goods and services because decisions are more often revised and more rapidly put into effect. There is the same presumption that a transaction that is freely undertaken will benefit both parties,  but there is a much greater danger that it will be harmful to others.  For example, mismanagement of mortgage lending in the United States led in 2008 to banking failures and credit shortages in other developed countries, and sudden reversals of international flows of capital have often led to damaging financial crises in developing countries. And, because of the incidence of rapid change,  the methodology of ''comparative statics'' has fewer applications than in the  theory of international trade, and ''empirical analysis'' is more widely employed. Also, the consensus among economists concerning its principle issues is narrower and more open to controversy than is the consensus about international trade.
 ===Exchange rates and capital mobility===
-A major change in the organisation of international finance occurred in the latter years of the twentieth century, and economists are still debating its implications.  At the end of the second world war the national signatories to the [[Bretton Woods Agreement ]] had agreed  to maintain their currencies each at a fixed [[exchange rate]] with the United States dollar, and the United States government had undertaken to buy gold on demand at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce. In support of those commitments, most signatory nations had maintained strict control over their nationals’ use of foreign exchange and upon their dealings in international financial assets. But in 1971  the United States government announced that it was suspending the convertibility of the dollar, and there followed a progressive transition to the current regime of ''floating exchange rates'' in which most  governments no longer attempt  to control their exchange rates or to impose controls upon access to foreign currencies or upon access to international financial markets. The behaviour of the international financial system was transformed. Exchange rates became very volatile and there was  an extended series of damaging financial crises. One study estimated that by the end of the twentieth century  there  had been 112 banking crises in 93 countries
+A major change in the organisation of international finance occurred in the latter years of the twentieth century, and economists are still debating its implications.  At the end of the second world war the national signatories to the [[Bretton Woods Agreement ]] had agreed  to maintain their currencies each at a fixed exchange rate with the United States dollar, and the United States government had undertaken to buy gold on demand at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce. In support of those commitments, most signatory nations had maintained strict control over their nationals’ use of foreign exchange and upon their dealings in international financial assets. But in 1971  the United States government announced that it was suspending the convertibility of the dollar, and there followed a progressive transition to the current regime of [[Exchange rate#floating exchange rate|floating exchange rates]] in which most  governments no longer attempt  to control their exchange rates or to impose controls upon access to foreign currencies or upon access to international financial markets. The behaviour of the international financial system was transformed. Exchange rates became very volatile and there was  an extended series of damaging financial crises. One study estimated that by the end of the twentieth century  there  had been 112 banking crises in 93 countries
 <ref>[http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPRRS/EXTFINGRTH/0,,menuPK:477861~pagePK:64168092~piPK:64168088~theSitePK:477849,00.html  ''Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World''   World  Bank  May, 2001]</ref>, another that there had been 26 banking crises, 86 currency crises and 27 mixed banking and currency  crises  <ref>[http://www.nber.org/papers/w8716  Barry Eichengreen and  Michael  Bordo ''Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization'' NBER Working Paper No. 8716  2002]</ref> - many times more than in the previous post-war years.
-The outcome was not what had been expected.  In making an influential case for flexible exchange rates in the 1950s, Milton Freedman had claimed that if there were any resulting instability, it would mainly be the consequence of macroeconomic instability <ref>Milton Freedman "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" in ''Essays in Positive Economics'' p173 Pheonix Books 1966</ref>, but an empirical analysis in 1999 found no apparent connection <ref>[http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/EJ98.pdf Robert Flood and Andrew Rose ''Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics'' IMF/Haas Business School 1999]</ref>.  Economists began to wonder whether the expected advantages of freeing financial markets from government intervention were in fact being realised <ref>[http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ExchangeRates.html  Paul Krugman ''Exchange Rates''  The Concie Encyclopedia of Economics  Library Economics and Liberty]</ref> <ref>[http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19980501FACOMMENT1384-faarticles/jagdish-bhagwati/the-capital-myth-the-difference-between-trade-in-widgets-and-dollars.html   Jagdish Bhagwati ''The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars'' Foreign Affairs, May/June 1998]</ref> <ref> [http://www.scientificjournals.org/journals2007/articles/1011.htm Carlos Liard-Muriente ''Capital Controls in Theory and Practice'' Journal of Business Finance Vol 1 Issue 1 2007]</ref>. Neoclassical theory had led them to expect capital to flow from the  capital-rich developed economies to the capital-poor  developing countries - because the returns to capital there would be higher. Flows of financial capital would tend to increase the level of investment in the developing countries by  reducing  their  costs of capital, and the  direct investment of physical capital would tend to  promote specialization and  the transfer of skills and technology. However, theoretical considerations alone cannot determine the balance between those benefits and the costs of volatility, and the question has had to be tackled by empirical analysis. A 2006 IMF working paper offers a summary of the  empirical evidence <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp06189.pdf  Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei ''Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal'' IMF Working Paper WP/06/189  2006]</ref>.  The authors  found little evidence  either of the  benefits of  the liberalisation of capital  movements,  or of claims that it is  responsible for the spate of financial crises.  They suggest that net benefits can be achieved by countries that are able to meet threshold conditions of financial competence but that for others,  the benefits are likely to be  delayed, and vulnerability  to interruptions of  capital flows is likely to be increased.
+The outcome was not what had been expected.  In making an influential case for flexible exchange rates in the 1950s, Milton Friedman had claimed that if there were any resulting instability, it would mainly be the consequence of macroeconomic instability <ref>Milton Friedman "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" in ''Essays in Positive Economics'' p173 Phoenix Books 1966</ref>, but an empirical analysis in 1999 found no apparent connection <ref>[http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/EJ98.pdf Robert Flood and Andrew Rose ''Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics'' IMF/Haas Business School 1999]</ref>.  Economists began to wonder whether the expected advantages of freeing financial markets from government intervention were in fact being realised <ref>[http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ExchangeRates.html  Paul Krugman: ''Exchange Rates''  The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics  Library Economics and Liberty]</ref> <ref>[http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19980501FACOMMENT1384-faarticles/jagdish-bhagwati/the-capital-myth-the-difference-between-trade-in-widgets-and-dollars.html   Jagdish Bhagwati: ''The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars'' Foreign Affairs, May/June 1998]</ref> <ref> [http://www.scientificjournals.org/journals2007/articles/1011.htm Carlos Liard-Muriente "Capital Controls in Theory and Practice" ''Journal of Business Finance'' Vol 1 Issue 1 2007]</ref>. Neoclassical theory had led them to expect capital to flow from the  capital-rich developed economies to the capital-poor  developing countries - because the returns to capital there would be higher. Flows of financial capital would tend to increase the level of investment in the developing countries by  reducing  their  costs of capital, and the  direct investment of physical capital would tend to  promote specialisation and  the transfer of skills and technology. However, theoretical considerations alone cannot determine the balance between those benefits and the costs of volatility, and the question has had to be tackled by empirical analysis. A 2006 International Monetary Fund working paper offers a summary of the  empirical evidence <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp06189.pdf  Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei ''Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal'' IMF Working Paper WP/06/189  2006]</ref>.  The authors  found little evidence  either of the  benefits of  the liberalisation of capital  movements,  or of claims that it is  responsible for the spate of financial crises.  They suggest that net benefits can be achieved by countries that are able to meet threshold conditions of financial competence but that for others,  the benefits are likely to be  delayed, and vulnerability  to interruptions of  capital flows is likely to be increased.
 ===Policies and Institutions===
-Although the majority of developed countries now allow their exchange rates to “float”,  some of them – together with  many developing countries –  maintain fixed rates of exchange, usually  with the US dollar or the euro. The adoption of a fixed rate requires intervention in the [[foreign exchange]] market by the country’s central bank, and is usually accompanied by a degree of  control over its citizens’ access to international markets. A controversial case in point is the policy of the Chinese government who had, until 2005, maintained the  renminbi at a fixed rate to the dollar, but have since ''pegged'' it to a basket of currencies. It is frequently alleged that in doing so they are deliberately holding its value lower than if it were allowed to float (but there is evidence to the contrary <ref>[http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/briefs/tbp-023.pdf  Daniel Griswold ''Who’s Manipulating Whom'' Trade Briefing Paper No 23 Cato Institute Center for Trade Policy Studies 2006]</ref>). Some  governments have abandoned their national currencies in favour of the common currency of a [[currency area]] such as the "''eurozone''" and some, such as Denmark, have retained their national currencies but have pegged them at a fixed rate to an adjacent  common currency. On an international scale,  the economic policies promoted by the [[International Monetary Fund]] (IMF) have had a major influence, especially upon the developing countries. The IMF was set up in 1944 to encourage international cooperation on monetary matters, to stabilise exchange rates and create an international payments system. Its principle activity is the payment of loans to help member countries to overcome [[balance of payments]] problems, mainly by restoring their depleted  [[currency reserves]]. Their loans are, however, conditional upon the introduction of economic measures by recipient governments that are considered by the Fund's economists to provide conditions favourable to recovery. Their recommended economic policies are broadly those that have been adopted in the United States and the other major developed countries (known as the "''[[Washington Consensus]]''")  and have often included the removal of all restrictions upon incoming investment. The Fund has been severely criticised by Joseph Stiglitz and others for what they consiser to be the inappropriate enforcement of those policies and for failing to warn recipient countries of the dangers that can arise from the volatility of capital movements.
+Although the majority of developed countries now have floating exchange rates,  some of them – together with  many developing countries –  maintain  exchange  rates that are nominally "fixed", usually  with the US dollar or the [[euro]]. The adoption of a fixed rate requires intervention in the [[foreign exchange]] market by the country’s central bank, and is usually accompanied by a degree of  control over its citizens’ access to international markets. A controversial case in point is the policy of the Chinese government who had, until 2005, maintained the  renminbi at a fixed rate to the dollar, but have since "pegged" it to a basket of currencies. It is frequently alleged that in doing so they are deliberately holding its value lower than if it were allowed to float (but there is evidence to the contrary <ref>[http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/briefs/tbp-023.pdf  Daniel Griswold ''Who’s Manipulating Whom'' Trade Briefing Paper No 23 Cato Institute Center for Trade Policy Studies 2006]</ref>). Some  governments have abandoned their national currencies in favour of the common currency of a [[currency area]] such as the [[eurozone]] and some, such as Denmark, have retained their national currencies but have pegged them at a fixed rate to an adjacent  common currency. On an international scale,  the economic policies promoted by the [[International Monetary Fund]] (IMF) have had a major influence, especially upon the developing countries. The IMF was set up in 1944 to encourage international cooperation on monetary matters, to stabilise exchange rates and create an international payments system. Its principal activity is the payment of loans to help member countries to overcome [[balance of payments]] problems, mainly by restoring their depleted  currency reserves. Their loans are, however, conditional upon the introduction of economic measures by recipient governments that are considered by the Fund's economists to provide conditions favourable to recovery. Their recommended economic policies are broadly those that have been adopted in the United States and the other major developed countries (known as the "''[[Washington Consensus]]''")  and have often included the removal of all restrictions upon incoming investment. The Fund has been severely criticised by Joseph Stiglitz and others for what they consider to be the inappropriate enforcement of those policies and for failing to warn recipient countries of the dangers that can arise from the volatility of capital movements.
+===International financial stability===
+From the time of the [[Great Depression]] onwards,  regulators and their economic advisors have been aware that economic and financial crises can spread rapidly from country to country, and that financial crises can have serious economic consequences.  For many decades, that awareness led governments to impose strict controls over the activities  and conduct of banks and other credit agencies, but in the 1980s  many governments pursued a policy of deregulation in the belief that the resulting efficiency gains would outweigh any ''systemic risk''s.  The extensive financial innovations that followed are described in the article on [[financial economics]]. One of their effects has been greatly to increase the international inter-connectedness of the financial markets and to create an international financial system with the characteristics known in control theory as "complex-interactive". The stability of such a system is difficult to analyse because there are many possible failure sequences. The internationally-systemic crises that followed  included the equity crash of October 1987 <ref>[http://www.lope.ca/markets/1987crash/   ''The 1987 Stock Market Crash'',  Lope 2004]</ref>, the Japanese asset price collapse of the 1990s <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0007.pdf, Akihiro and David Woo ''The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990s: Sources and Lessons'', IMF Working Paper WP/00/7 2000]</ref> the Asian financial crisis of 1997<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/09/lane.htm, Timothy Lane: "The Asian Financial Crisis; What Have We Learned" ''Finance and development'' September 1999 IMF]</ref> the Russian  government default of 1998 <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp00160.pdf Taimur Baig and Ilan Goldfajn: ''The Russian Default and Contagion to Brazil'' IMF Working Paper WP/00/160 200]</ref>(which brought down the Long-Term Capital Management  hedge fund) and the 2007-8  sub-prime mortgages crisis <ref>[http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/report2008.pdf "Global Risks 2008" World Economic Forum January 2008]</ref> <ref>[http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2008/01/index.htm: ''Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness'' Global Financial Stability Report International Monetary Fund April 2008]</ref>.  The symptoms have generally  included collapses in asset prices, increases in risk premiums, and general reductions in liquidity. Measures designed to reduce the vulnerability of the international financial system have been put forward by several international institutions. The [[Bank for International Settlements]] made two successive recommendations (Basel I and Basel II <ref>[http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs129.pdf Core Principles of Effective Banking Supervision Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements   2006(Basel 2)]</ref>) concerning the regulation of banks, and a coordinating group of regulating authorities, and  the [[Financial Stability Forum]], that was set up in 1999 to identify and address the weaknesses in the system, has put forward some  proposals in an interim report <ref> [http://www.fsforum.org/publications/publication_24_92.html:  ''Interim Report of the Working Group on Market and Institutional Resilience'', Financial Stability Forum, February 2008]</ref>.
+===Global imbalances===
+Cross-country differences in saving patterns, investment patterns, and portfolio choices  can result in large international capital flows  and the development of correspondingly large  current account surpluses and deficits. Those developments are beneficial insofar as they reflect differing in levels of development, demographic patterns, and other underlying economic fundamentals, but they can also reflect  distortions, externalities, and irrational risk-taking<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0929.pdf Olivier Blanchard and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti: ''Global Imbalances: In Midstream?'', Fig 4, IMF Staff Position Note, International Monetary Fund, December 2009]</ref>. The large capital flows  into the United States from China, Japan and the oil-exporting countries  in the 1990s and early years of the 21st century<ref> Ignazio Visco: ''Global Imbalances and the International Monetary System",  World Economics January-March 2010</ref>enabled its inhabitants to consume more than they produced - a trend that was recognisably unsustainable.  Before the [[Great Recession]] there were  numerous warnings of the consequences of a reversal of such a trend <ref> Martin Wolf: ''Fixing Global Finance'', Yale University Press, 2009</ref>, and although it was largely reversed in the course of that recession, there are still concerns about the dangers of its possible renewal.
 ==Migration==
-Elementary considerations lead to  a presumption that  international [[migration]]  results in a net gain in economic welfare. Wage  differences between developed and developing countries have been found to be mainly due to  productivity differences <ref>[http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=102106888 Stephen Golub  ''Labor Costs and International Trade''  American Enterprise Institute: 1999]</ref> which may be assumed to  arise mostly from differences in the availability of physical, social and human capital.  And  economic theory  indicates that the move of a skilled worker from a place where the returns to skill are relatively to  low to a  place where they are relatively  high should produce a net gain  (but that it would tend to depress the wages of skilled workers in the recipient country).  There have been many econometric studies intended to quantify those gains. Evidence from the United States suggests that the  economic benefits to the receiving country are relatively small
+Elementary considerations lead to  a presumption that  international [[migration]]  results in a net gain in economic welfare. Wage  differences between developed and developing countries have been found to be mainly due to  productivity differences <ref>[http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=102106888 Stephen Golub  ''Labor Costs and International Trade''  American Enterprise Institute: 1999]</ref> which may be assumed to  arise mostly from differences in the availability of physical, social and human capital.  And  economic theory  indicates that the move of a skilled worker from a place where the returns to skill are relatively low to a  place where they are relatively  high should produce a net gain  (but that it would tend to depress the wages of skilled workers in the recipient country).  There have been many econometric studies intended to quantify those gains. A Copenhagen Consensus study suggests that if the share of foreign workers grew to 3% of the labour force in the rich countries there would be global benefits of $675 billion a year by 2025 <ref>[http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=953 Kym Anderson and Alan Winter: "The Challenge of Reducing International Trade and Migration Barriers", ''Copenhagen Consensus'', 2008]</ref>. However, a survey of the evidence led a House of Lords committee to  conclude that any benefits of immigration to the United Kingdom are relatively small <ref>[http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/82.pdf House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Session 2007-8 HL paper 82, The Stationery Office, London]</ref>. Evidence from the United States also suggests that the  economic benefits to the receiving country are relatively small
-<ref>[http://www.nber.org/papers/w4955.pdf  George J. Borjas ''The Economic Benefits from Immigration''  NBER Working Paper No. 4955 1994]</ref>, and that the presence of immigrants in its  labour market results in only a small reduction in local wages <ref>[http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~GBorjas/Papers/JEL94.pdf George Borjas ''The Economics of Immigration'' Journal of Economic Literature Dec 1994]</ref>. From the standpoint of a developing country,  the emigration of skilled workers represents a loss of human capital, leaving the remaining workforce without the benefit of their support. That effect upon the welfare of the parent country is to some extent offset by the remittances that are sent home by the emigrants,  and by the enhanced technical know-how with which some of them return. One study introduces a further offsetting  factor to suggest that the opportunity to migrate fosters enrolment in education
+<ref>[http://www.nber.org/papers/w4955.pdf  George J. Borjas ''The Economic Benefits from Immigration''  NBER Working Paper No. 4955 1994]</ref>, and that the presence of immigrants in its  labour market results in only a small reduction in local wages <ref>[http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~GBorjas/Papers/JEL94.pdf George Borjas ''The Economics of Immigration'' Journal of Economic Literature Dec 1994]</ref>. From the standpoint of a developing country,  the emigration of skilled workers represents a loss of human capital (known as [[brain drain]]), leaving the remaining workforce without the benefit of their support. That effect upon the welfare of the parent country is to some extent offset by the remittances that are sent home by the emigrants, and by the enhanced technical know-how with which some of them return. One study introduces a further offsetting  factor to suggest that the opportunity to migrate fosters enrolment in education thus promoting a "brain gain" that can counteract the lost human capital associated with emigration
-<ref>[http://www.soton.ac.uk/~fxmp/hillel.pdf  Frederic Docquier and Hillel Rapoport  ''Skilled Migration: the Perspective of the Developing Countries'']</ref>, and some studies suggest that some parent countries benefit from the emigration of skilled workers <ref>[http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/index.php/papers/details/brain_drain_or_brain_gainmicro_evidence_from_an_african_success_story/ Catia Batista, Pedro  Vicente and Aitor Lacuesta ''Brain Drain or Brain Gain?Micro: Evidence from an African Success Story''   Oxford Economics Papers August 2007]</ref>. It is doubtful, however, whether these findings apply to all of the wide variety of types of migration that are likely to occur. Variables such as the complementarity of skills, the  duration of stay and its timing relative to the economic cycle, and the movements of dependants seem likely to influence the outcome in particular cases. In contrast to the general relaxation of government controls upon international trade and finance, there has been a widespread increase in controls over immigration, which may themselves have influenced the results of the econometric studies.
+<ref>[http://www.soton.ac.uk/~fxmp/hillel.pdf  Frederic Docquier and Hillel Rapoport  ''Skilled Migration: the Perspective of the Developing Countries'']</ref>. Whereas some studies suggest that parent countries can benefit from the emigration of skilled workers <ref>[http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/index.php/papers/details/brain_drain_or_brain_gainmicro_evidence_from_an_african_success_story/ Catia Batista, Pedro  Vicente and Aitor Lacuesta: "Brain Drain or Brain Gain?Micro: Evidence from an African Success Story", ''Oxford Economics Papers'', August 2007]</ref>, generally it is emigration of unskilled and semi-skilled workers that is of economic benefit to countries of origin, by reducing pressure for employment creation. Where skilled emigration is concentrated in specific highly skilled sectors, such as medicine, the consequences are severe and even catastrophic in cases where 50% or so of trained doctors have emigrated. The crucial issues, as recently acknowledged by the OECD, is the matter of return and reinvestment in their countries of origin by the migrants themselves: thus, government policies in Europe are increasingly focused upon facilitating temporary skilled migration alongside migrant remittances. Unlike movement of capital and goods, since 1973 government policies have tried to restrict migration flows, often without any economic rationale. Such restrictions have had diversionary effects, channeling the great majority of migration flows into illegal migration and "false" asylum-seeking <ref> Martin Baldwin-Edwards: "Illegal Immigration, A Theoretical and Historical Approach", ''Third World Quarterly'' (forthcoming)</ref>. Since such migrants work for lower wages and often zero social insurance costs, the gain from labour migration flows is actually higher than the minimal gains calculated for legal flows; accompanying side-effects are significant, however, and include political damage to the idea of immigration, lower unskilled wages for the host population, and increased policing costs alongside lower tax receipts.
-==Globalization==
+==Globalisation==
+The term [[globalisation]] has acquired a variety of meanings, but in economic terms if refers to the move that is taking place in the direction of  complete mobility of capital and labour  and their products,  so that the world's economies are on the way to becoming totally integrated.  The driving forces of the process are reductions in politically-imposed barriers and in the costs of transport and communication (although,  even if  those barriers and costs were eliminated, the process would be  limited by inter-country differences in social capital).   It is a process which has ancient origins,  which has gathered  pace in the last fifty years,  but which is very far from complete.  In its concluding stages, interest rates, wage rates and corporate and income  tax rates would become the same everywhere, driven to equality by competition, as investors, wage earners and corporate and personal taxpayers threatened to migrate in search of better terms. In fact,  there are few signs of international convergence of interest rates, wage rates or tax rates.  Although the world is more integrated in some respects, it is possible to argue that on the whole it is now less integrated than it was before the first world war. <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2001/06/streeten.htm Paul Streeten  "Integration, Interdependence, and Globalization" in  ''Finance and Development''  IMF June 2001]</ref>, and that many  middle-east countries are less globalised than they were 25 years ago <ref> Fred Bergsten “The G-20 and the World Economy” in ''World Economics'' Vol 5 Number 3 Page 28 July/September 2004 [http://www.world-economics-journal.com/BackIssues.Asp?Vol=5&Iss=3]</ref>.
-==See also==
+Of the moves toward integration that have occurred, the strongest has been in financial markets, in which  globalisation is estimated to have  tripled since  the mid-1970s<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/NUM0816A.htm Paolo Mauro and Jonathan Ostry  ''Who's Driving Financial Globalization?'' IMF Research Department 2007]</ref>.
+Recent research has shown that it  has improved risk-sharing, but only in developed countries, and that in the developing countries it has increased macroeconomic volatility. It is estimated to have  resulted in net welfare gains worldwide, but with  losers as well as gainers.
+<ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/docs/2007/0607.pdf  IMF  Research Department ''Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalisation'' IMF Research Department  Discussion Paper 2007]</ref>  <ref>[http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2007/02/pdf/evans.pdf Martin Evans and Viktoria Hnatkovska  ''International Financial Integration and the Real Economy'' IMF Staff Papers Vol 54 No 2 2007]</ref>. Increased  globalisation has  also made it easier for recessions to spread from country to country.  A  reduction in economic activity  in one country can lead to a  reduction in activity  in its trading partners  as a result of its consequent reduction in demand for their exports, which  is one of the mechanisms by which the business cycle is transmitted from country to country. Empirical research confirms that the greater the trade linkage between countries the more coordinated are their business cycles <ref>[http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=368201 Kose, M. Ayhan and Yi, Kei-Mu, ''The Trade Comovement Problem in International Macroeconomics'' (December 2002). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 155]</ref>. Globalisation can also have a significant influence upon the conduct of macroeconomic policy. The [[Mundell-Fleming]] model and its extensions <ref>[http://www.nber.org/papers/w2321 Jacob  Frenkel and Assaf  Razin ''The Mundell-Fleming Model A Quarter Century Later: A Unified Exposition''  International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 34, No. 4, December 1987]</ref> are often used to   analyse  the role  of capital mobility   (and it  was also used by Paul Krugman to give a simple account of the Asian financial crisis <ref>[http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/MINICRIS.htm  Paul Krugman ''Analytical Afterthoughts on The Asian Crisis'']</ref>).  Part of the  increase in income inequality that has taken place within countries is  attributable - in some cases -  to  globalisation. A recent  IMF report demonstrates  that the increase in inequality in the developing countries in the period 1981 to 2004 was due entirely to technological change, with globalisation making a partially offsetting negative contribution, and that in the developed countries globalisation and technological change were equally responsible. <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/02/pdf/text.pdf  Subir Lall, Chris Papageorgiou and Petia Topalva Globalization and Inequality  in  IMF World Economic Outlook October 2007 Chapter 4]</ref>.
-[[Balance of payments]], [[Currency area]], [[Exchange rate]], [[Foreign exchange]]
+==Opposition to globalisation ==
+Globalisation  is seen  as contributing to economic welfare by most economists – but not all.  Professor Joseph Stiglitz <ref>[http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/ Joseph Stiglitz website]</ref> <ref>[http://www.cceia.org/resources/transcripts/101.html Interview with Joseph Stiglitz]</ref> of the Columbia Business School has advanced the infant industry case for protection in developing countries and criticised the conditions imposed for help by the International Monetary Fund <ref>Joseph Stiglitz ''Globalization and its Discontents" Norton 2002</ref>. And Professor Dani Rodrik of Harvard<ref>[http://rodrik.typepad.com Dani Rodrik's website]</ref> has noted that the  benefits of  globalisation are unevenly spread, and that it has led to income inequalities, and to damaging losses of social capital in the parent countries and to social stresses resulting from immigration in the receiving countries  <ref>Dani Rodrik ''Has Globalization Gone Too Far?.'' Institute for International Economics 1997 </ref>. An extensive  critical  analysis of these contentions has been made by Martin Wolf <ref> Martin Wolf ''Why Globalization Works''  Yale Nota Bene 2005</ref>, and a lecture by Professor Jagdish Bhagwati has surveyed the debate that has taken place among economists<ref>[http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news07_e/bhagwati_oct07_e.htm  Jagdish Bhagwati The Consensus for Free Trade Among economists — has it frayed? Lecture to the World Trade Organisation October 8th 2007 ]</ref>
 ==References==
+{{reflist|2}}[[Category:Suggestion Bot Tag]]
-<references/>

International economics: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 06:01, 2 September 2024

Contents

International trade

Scope and methodology

Classical theory

Modern theory

The effects of trade

Gains from trade

Factor price equalisation

Terms of trade

Infant industries

Trade policies

International Finance

Scope and methodology

Exchange rates and capital mobility

Policies and Institutions

International financial stability

Global imbalances

Migration

Globalisation

Opposition to globalisation

References

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International economics: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 06:01, 2 September 2024

International trade

Scope and methodology

Classical theory

Modern theory

The effects of trade

Gains from trade

Factor price equalisation

Terms of trade

Infant industries

Trade policies

International Finance

Scope and methodology

Exchange rates and capital mobility

Policies and Institutions

International financial stability

Global imbalances

Migration

Globalisation

Opposition to globalisation

References

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