Arab Spring/Addendum

CPI denotes the Corruption Protection Index, which ranges from 0 for highly corrupt to 10 for totally transparent.
DI denotes Democracy Index which ranges from 0 for totalitarian to 10 for fully democratic.
GI denotes Gini index which is a number between 0 and 100 reflecting the degree of inequality of family income.
GDP/head figures are at purchasing power parity exchange rates using CIA World Factbook figures.

Arab national movements

(Situation on 29 October 2011}

Algeria

Population 35m, 99% Sunni Muslim CPI 2010: 2.9, DI 2010: 3.4, unemployment rate: 9.9%, GDP/head: $7,300), OPEC member. Oil output 38% of GDP (official press service) (country profile)

The protests and strikes in January 2011 and after were mainly about living standards and corruption. President Bouteflika responded with cuts in food prices, and a promise to review the constitution. On 16 April, he announced that a commission would be created to draw up amendments to the constitution in order to make it more democratic. In September he announced reforms to permit the operation of private radio and television stations.

Bahrain

Population 1.2 m, 81% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.9, DI 2010: 3.5, unemployment rate: 3.6%, GDP/head: $40,300 Oil output 28% of GDP (BBC country profile)

A constitutional monarchy with an elected legislative assembly. Majority Shi'ites are demanding more power from Sunni-led government. Protest movements have been crushed by force, , and the treatment of human rights protestors was the subject of an adverse report by the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights

Egypt

Population 82m, 90% Muslim, CPI 2010: 3.1, DI 2010: 3.1,unemployment rate: 9.7%, GDP/head: $6,200 Oil output 12% of GDP (Egypt State Information Service) (country profile)

In February 2011, mass protests, during which at least 846 people were killed, ended the 30-year presidency of Hosni Mubarak, and he was replaced by the "Supreme Council of the Armed Forces" (SCAF) led by Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. Protests continued as a result of tension between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the youth movements that launched the January 25th Tahrir Square uprising . A referendum was held in March that approved a number of temporary constitutional changes including the commitment to hold an early election.

Parliamentary elections are now due to take place in three stages between November 2011 and January 2012, and a presidential election is expected to take place in March or April 2012. The parliamentary elections are expected to be contested by scores of political parties in a struggle for power between the country's secularists and its islamists. Egypt's largest Islamist party is the Freedom and Justice Party (Al-Hurriyya wa al-‘Adala), which was formed by the Muslim Brotherhood in May 2011, and which campaigns for parliamentary governance, with legislation monitored by a constitutional court in order to ensure its compatibility with Islamic principles of justice. There are six other Islamist parties, one of which is Sufist and two of which are Salafist, and ten broadly secular parties.

When a parliament is elected, its principal task will be the drafting of a new constitution. To guard against the possiblity that a predominantly Islamist parliament might impose a strict form of Sharia law, the SCAF called for a declaration of overriding constitutional principles to be agreed before elections could be held. Such a declaratin has been drafted by Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs Aly El-Selmi, and came to be known as the El-Selmi Document. Its presumed intention is the creation of a secular constitution and, as such, it was supported by the secularist parties and opposed by the majority Islamist parties, who demand immediate unconditional elections. In November 2011, protests against the SCAF, involving over 100,000 people, were met with a violent response, and the provisional government responded by offering to resign.

Amnesty International has accused the SCAF of human rights abuses and broken promises.

The uprising has triggered substantial capital outflows, a decline in tourism revenue, remittances, and a fall in economic growth from 5 percent in FY2009/10 to between 1 and 2 percent in FY2010/11. Unemployment, that was already high, is expected to increase. Growth is expected to recover gradually up to 4 percent in FY2011/12, assuming that confidence improves following the elections.

Jordan

Population 6.5m, 92% Muslim, CPI 2010:4.7, DI 2010: 3.7, GI: 38, unemployment rate: 13.4%, GDP/head: $5,400 (Jordan Government website) (BBC country profile)

In February 2011, King Abdullah responded to large-scale, but mainly peaceful, protests by sacking his Cabinet and appointing a new Prime Minister, former army general Marouf Bakhit. A powerful Islamist opposition group, the Islamic Action Front has called for the dissolution of parliament and has criticised the king's efforts to initiate reform. In February, smaller-scale protests continued through the summer, and King Abdullah replaced Prime Minister Bakhit with Awn al-Khasawneh, a judge at the International Court of Justice.

Lebanon

Population 4m, 60% Muslim, 39% Christian, CPI 2010: 2.5,DI 2010: 5.8, unemployment rate:9.2 %, GDP/head: $14,400(BBC country profile)

The Arab Spring may have added impetus to previous protests against the constitutional reservation of government posts for members of rival sects. The government collapsed in January 2011 for apparently unrelated reasons, and, after lengthy negotiations, a new government was formed in June. Future developments in Lebanon may be expected to be influenced by events in Syria.

Libya

Population 6.6m, 97% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.3, DI 2010: 1.9, GI: 36, unemployment rate: 20.7%, GDP/head: $14,000), OPEC member, Oil output 62% of GDP (National Transition Council website) (BBC country profile)

Protests that started in February 2011 developed into a civil war (as described in Civil war in Libya) that ended with the death of Colonel Gadaffi on 12th October 2011. Control of the anti-government forces during the civil war had been formally assumed by an National Transitional Council, which was formally recognised as the legitimate representative body of the Libyan people, at first by the United States, Britain and France, and subsequently by nearly all of the world's governments. In August 2011, the Council issued a constitutional declaration that proposed principles and procedures for a transition to constitutional government. Under its terms, a Constitutional Conference is to be elected by June 2012 which will draft a new constitution for popular approval by plebiscite; and parliamentary elections are to follow within six months.

By the end of the civil war, oil and natural gas production - which had accounted for more than 70 percent of GDP - had virtually ceased, the non-oil economy had suffered severe damage, and GDP is believed to have fallen by over 50 percent.

Morocco

Population 40m, 99% Muslim, CPI 2010: 3.4, DI 2010: 3.8, unemployment rate:9.8%, GDP/head: $4,800 (Moroccan Government website)

Protests have been mainly peaceful, and the response of the security forces has been generally moderate. Constitutional changes were introduced in July 2011 that reduce King Mohammed's near-absolute powers and name a prime minister from the largest party elected to parliament. as head of the executive branch. They were rejected as inadequate by the "February 20" protest movement.

Oman

Population 3m, 75% Muslim, CPI 2010: 5.3,DI 2010: 2.9, unemployment rate: 15%, GDP/head: $23,600, Oil output 42% of GDP

There were protests in March 2011 over unemployment, food prices and corruption. The Sultan responded by promising to give legislative powers to Oman's parliament.

Saudi Arabia

Population 26m, 100% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.7, DI 2010: 1.8, GI: 32, unemployment rate: 10.8%, GDP/head: $24,200), OPEC member, Oil output 42% of GDP (BBC country profile)

Protests have been few and local, confined to Shi'ite areas in the east. There have been no mass pro-democracy protests and opposition movements are banned. In September 2011 the King announced that women are to be allowed to vote and to become members of the Advisory Council.

Syria

Population 23m, 90% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.5, DI 2010: 2.3, unemployment rate: 8.3%, GDP/head: $4,800, Oil output 21% of GDP (Syrian Arab News Agency) (BBC country profile)

In response to the mass protests that started in March 2011, Syrian security forces have fired on unarmed protesters and about 3,500 civilians have since been killed. A report by representatives of the United Nations High Commission on Human Rights has called upon the government to "immediately put an end to the gross human rights violations, including the excessive use of force against demonstrators and the killing of protestors, torture and ill-treatment of detainees and enforced disappearances; halt violations of economic, social and cultural rights". In July, army defectors created the Free Syrian Army, but they did not at that time offer armed resistance to government forces. In September, a group of Syrian activists formed a "Syrian National Council" representing a united front in opposition to President Assad. On October 15 President Assad appointed a committee to draft a new constitution that is to be introduced within four months . By mid October, clashes between loyalist and defected army units were being reported fairly regularly. On the 2nd of November 2011, the Syrian government accepted an Arab League proposal designed to put an end to the conflict. The proposal was for Syria to withdraw all tanks and armored vehicles from the streets, stop violence against protesters, release all political prisoners and begin a dialogue with the opposition within two weeks. Syria also agreed to allow journalists, rights groups and Arab League representatives to monitor the situation in Syria. However, the artillery bombardment of the city of Homs continued from the next day. . On November 12, Syria was suspended from membership of the League and its members were called upon to impose sanctions against it. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation then added its support for the action of the Arab League and condemnation of the actions of the Syrian government . Also in November, attacks by army defectors on military bases in Damascus raised fears of full-scale armed confict.

Tunisia

Population 10.6m, 98% Muslim, CPI 2010: 4.3, DI 2010: 2.8,unemployment rate: 14%, GDP/head: $9,400 (Tunisian Government Portal) (country profile) (news link)

The Arab Spring started in a small Tunisian town in December 2010, after a young stallholder, Mohamed Bouazizi, set fire to himself in protest at his abusive treatment by the police. Riots, in the course of which around 300 people died, forced the resignation of President Zine al-Abidine Mebazaa. The political police and state security apparatus, which were blamed for many human rights abuses, were disbanded.

Elections of an interim assembly, which is to draw up a constitution, were held on 24 October 2011. The winning party was expected to be previously outlawed Islamist party, Ennahda ("Renaissance"). Despite Islamic connections, Ennahda campaigns for democratic governance, and does not seek to impose Sharia law. (Its adoption as a candidate of the female Suad Abdel-Rahim, who does not wear a veil, may be an indication of their moderation in other respects.) With 192 seats out of the 217 total seats in the Constituent Assembly declared by 27th October, the Ennahda party led with 78 seats, the secularist centre-left Congress for the Republic came second with 26 seats, and the secularist Aridha Chaabia (Popular Petition for Freedom) came a close third with 25 seats, the secular social democratic party Ettakatol came fourth with 18 seats, and the secularist Progressive Democratic Party had 10 seats. The final share of seats gained by Ennahda was 41 per cent, prompting the presumption that it would form the major component of a coalition led by Rachid Ghannouchi as Prime Minister.

Economic growth is expected to fall from 3.7 percent in 2010 to 1.3 percent in 2011 as a result of declines in tourism, foreign direct investment and remittances from Tunisians working abroad.

Yemen

Population 24m, 99% Muslim, CPI 2010: 2.2, DI 2010: 2.6, unemployment rate: 35%, GDP/head: $2,700, Oil output 32% of GDP (Yemen Governmemt website) (BBC country profile)

The Yemeni uprising in January 2011 took the form of peaceful protests about unemployment, malnutrion and corruption, but it was violently repulsed by the country's armed forces, and hundreds were killed. A bitter power struggle also developed between the president's clan and their rivals, the Bani al-Ahmar. An incident in March, when 53 peaceful demonstrators were killed, led to the resignation of a number of Ministers, Ambassadors and other members of the ruling party, and the defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar (who promised to use his armoured brigade troops to protect the demonstrators). In August 2011, President Saleh promised to step down and to hold free and direct elections in 2013[2], but the demonstrations continued.

In September 2011, a United Nations mission reported that protesters were trying to preserve the peaceful character of their demonstrations, but were being met with the excessive and disproportionate use of lethal force. The mission considered that the growing activity of "armed elements" among the demonstrators presented the danger of a cycle of escalating violence.

In November 2011 there were UN-brokered negtiations for the relinquishment of power by President Saleh fo;;owed by early elections.

An Al-Qaida terrrorist organisation is reported to be based in Yemen, but has not taken part in the protests.

Civil war in Libya

In mid-February 2011, government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the Libyan second city of Benghazi. A bitter conflict ensued in which the rebels took control of the city. The government responded with an aerial bombardment that caused thousands of casualties. There was international outrage at the brutality of its actions and, on 18th March, the United Nations Security Council responded to the Arab League's request for the imposition of a no-fly zone with a resolution that authorised member states to to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack. In the course of the following week, air attacks by the US, British and French and other NATO aircraft destroyed the Libyan air force. In the following months there developed a civil war between government forces based in Tripoli in the west of Libya and rebel forces initially based in Benghazi in the east. After six months of fighting with continuing NATO air support, rebel forces entered Tripoli, then the principal government-held city. Fierce fighting continued after the fall of Tripoli, however, until the fall of the remaining government-held town of Sirte and the killing of Colonel Gaddafi in October 2011.

National and international reactions

Overview

There is no evidence of non-Arab influences upon the Arab Spring uprisings, and every indication that they came as a sudden surprise to all who were not directly involved. There were supportive reactions from many western governments, however, and in May, the G8 countries promised $20bn (£12bn) of loans and aid to Tunisia and Egypt over the following two years and suggested more would be available if the countries continued on the path to democracy. However, there was no support for military intervention until the news of Libyan air force attacks upon civilians in areas held by rebels. Expressions of condemnation were followed by calls for protective action. A crucial factor in international support of a military response was an Arab League recommendation to the United Nations for a no-fly zone. The Libya resolutions 1970 and 1973 that were passed by the Security Council have been described as "the most wide-ranging that it had passed for more than 20 years". . The main support for NATO military intervention in Libya came from the governments of the United States, France and Britain.

The United Nations

On February 2011, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1970 , imposing an arms embargo on Libya and freezing the assets of its leaders. On March 17, it adopted resolution 1973 (2011) by a vote of 10 in favour to none against, with 5 abstentions (Brazil, China, Germany, India, Russian Federation), authorising Member States, "to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack in the country, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory" . In September 2011 it was decided to create a United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to assist its transition to representative government.

The Deauville Partnership

The Deauville Partnership was launched at a G8 summit in May 2011. Its purpose was set out by the G8 foreign ministers as promoting the transition to democracy by:- strengthening of the rule of law, supporting civil societies, developing education and vocational training, strengthening economic development, and supporting regional and global integration. In its support, ten International Financial Institutions' (IFIs) have agreed to establish an Arab Financing Facility for Infrastructure (AFFI), and to set up a new coordination platform at the staff operational level. The current Partnership Countries are Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, and others are being encouraged to join.

The European Union

Concerning Libya, the European Council declared its commitment to "the full implementation" of Security Council Resolutions, but there was disagreement about military intervention. Interventin by Britain and France was opposed by Germany and was given only reluctant support by Italy The European Commission has made available EUR €30 million for humanitarian aid in Libya and to refugees at the Tunisian and Egyptian borders. In support of their reconstruction, the EU has offered the Arab countries "Partnerships for Democracy and Shared Prosperity” conditional upon evidence of concrete progress toward the establishment of democracy, human rights, social justice, good governance and the rule of law .

NATO

On March 27 2011, NATO decided to take on the whole military operation in Libya under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. The stated purpose of Operation Unified Protector was "to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack . Of the its 28 members, 14 took military action in support of the uprising, 8 of which took part in ground attacks. In the first three months NATO aircraft flew over 13,000 sorties and by September there is reported to have a been total of 22,817 sorties, including 8,560 strike sorties.

USA

On 17 May 2011, President Obama announced a new chapter in American diplomacy. In addition to the pursuit of existing policy objectives, such as countering terrorism, it would be be the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy. But, noting that the people themselves who had launched the protest movements, he emphasised that it should be "the people themselves that must ultimately determine their outcome". A CNN/Opinion Research Poll indicated approval by a majority of Americans as well as opposition by a substantial minority.

Russia

In a condemnation of the UN resolution on Libya as comparable to "medieval calls for crusades" by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (repudiated, however, by President Dmitry Medvedev) On 7 March Russian foreign minister Serghei Lavrov stressed Moscow's opposition to military intervention in Libya: "we don't see how any form of external intervention could possibly solve the Libyan crisis, especially if it were military in nature. Libyans need to solve their own problems.

China

NATO air strikes were also condemned by the governments of China, Venezuela and Cuba..