Talk:Statistical significance

calculation problem in example

What is the matter with this second Bayesian example I tried to make:

Example of a coin flip that comes up heads in none of four tosses:

${\text{Bayes Factor}}\ =\ {\frac {\left({\frac {1}{2}}\right)^{4}\ *\ \left({\frac {1}{2}}\right)^{0}}{\ \left({\frac {4}{4}}\right)^{4}\ *\ \left({\frac {0}{4}}\right)^{0}}}\ =\ {\frac {\frac {1}{16}}{0}}={\text{Infinity}}$

Thanks - Robert Badgett 06:44, 4 August 2009 (UTC)

What is wrong, is that 1^4 0^0 = 1, not zero. The Bayes factor is 1:16

If initially a coin is equally likely to be fair, or to be certain always to fall heads, then after 4 tosses all gave heads, the coin is 16 times more likely to double-headed than to be fair. Richard D. Gill (talk) 14:17, 20 February 2021 (UTC)